Sunday, January 17, 2016

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 1.15.16

As this has probably been the most significant week of the last two years, this week's summary is particularly useful.  For further usefulness on the events of the last two weeks (and particularly the last two days), this Sunday's bonus material includes an entertaining 10 minute audio program analyzing the financial crisis via the recent hit film, "The Big Short."  This weekend's additional bonus material includes two excellent articles, one from the Wall Street Journal, one from Market Watch, discussing why Friday's gigantic hiccup is almost certainly just that - a hiccup.  I am also providing representations of two dramatic graphics.  The first is the Bloomberg Carbon Clock showing the correlation between rising carbon emissions and global temperatures, the second the National Debt Clock showing ... well, everyone knows what that one shows.  The question I will now put to you is ... which one would you choose to represent the greater threat to our future?  For you bankers and federal employees out there, you get one more day this weekend.


Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 1.15.16


Succinct Summations for the week ending January 15th, 2016
Positives:
  1. Small business optimism rose to 95.2, up from 94.8 previously and slightly higher than expected.
  2. Job openings came in at 5.431mm, up from 5.383mm previously.
  3. The MBA mortgage application composite index rose 21.3% w/o/w.
  4. Bloomberg’s consumer comfort index rose slightly, the 5th straight gain.
  5. Consumer sentiment rose to 93.3, up from 92.6 previously.
Negatives:
  1. S. stocks are off to their worst 10-day start ever.
  2. S. core retail sales fell 0.1% m/o/m, vs an expected 0.2% increase.
  3. The Beige book described growth consumer spending as “no better than slight to moderate.”
  4. S. jobless claims rose to 284k, and the 4-week moving average is up to 278.75k, from 275.75k previously.
  5. Empire state manufacturing survey collapsed to -19.37, its worst reading since 2009.
  6. Import and export prices are continuing to fall, -1.2% and 1.1% respectively.
  7. Retail sales fell 0.1% m/o/m, down from the 0.2% previous rise.
  8. Industrial production fell 0.4%, worse than the 0.2% expected decline.
  9. Business inventories fell 0.2%, versus flat expectations.



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