Yesterday I ended my commentary by saying, "Tomorrow it's back to business as usual." But there was nothing usual about what happened today. So many of the market wizards from Wall Street to Shanghai have called today's events completely unexpected. But were they really? A major factor that has kept China out of the abyss has been restrictions imposed by Beijing after last August's disastrous rout to limit trading on the Chinese exchanges, particularly that of the risky practice of short selling. Those restrictions expired at the end of 2015 so today was the first trading day since that expiration that traders in Shanghai were allowed to operate unfettered. What did they expect? All it took was one bit of bad news -- in this case a report of further weakening in manufacturing (again, was this really a surprise?) -- and the panic began with the Shanghai index dropping a whopping 7% right out the gate, particularly with shorting, until an automatic switch got tripped to halt trading. But the sudden drop sparked global panic that reached all the way to Wall Street.
Don't these guys go to the movies? Haven't they seen the new hit film "The Big Short" and understand how disastrous risky trades can be? Especially in an already fragile market? But it could have been much worse. In fact, the Dow had dropped almost 450 points by 11 a.m. but then rebounded almost half that much by late in the session. Let's hope the bounce continues tomorrow. Predictably, today's panic with everyone back in the office was characterized by significantly above average volume of 8.5 billion.
Since China had such a strong bearing on today's events, before today's Reuters summary is a link to another article that goes into much more detail on the situation in Asia. Welcome back from the holiday!
China stocks rout on first market day of 2016 trips national trading halt | Re
Markets |
Wall Street begins year sharply lower after China selloff
DJ: 17,148.94 -276.09 NAS: 4,903.09
-104.32 S&P: 2,012.66
-31.28
(Reuters) U.S.
stocks began 2016 sharply lower on Monday, with the Dow marking its worst start
to a year since 2008, after weak Chinese economic data fanned fears of a global
slowdown.Indexes partly recovered
late in the session, following a turnaround in oil prices that caused energy
shares to cut losses. At its low for the day, the Dow was down 467 points and
was headed for its worst first-day percentage drop since 1932.
Surveys showed factory activity in the world's second-largest
economy shrank sharply in December, sparking a 7-percent slide in Chinese shares that triggered a
trading halt. Adding to investors' worries, China's central bank fixed
the yuan at a 4-1/2 year low, further weakening it against the dollar.
U.S. data sparked further concern as factory activity weakened
unexpectedly in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management.
"There was the turmoil overnight overseas that kind of set
the tone ... (but) all of the negatives out there have been out there for a
while," said Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading in
Greenwich, Connecticut.
"The fact that we closed down on the year, the Fed
tightened, it crystallized in investors' minds that we're not in the
environment we were in throughout most of the recovery."
The selloff was
widespread but not as deep as the slide caused by worries of a China-led global
slowdown in August, when the Dow tumbled more than 1,000 points at one point.
Nasdaq led the day's decline and Amazon (AMZN.O), down
5.8 percent at $636.99, weighed the most on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while
the Nasdaq Biotech Index .NBI dropped 3.2 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial
average .DJI closed down 276.09 points, or 1.58
percent, to 17,148.94, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 31.28 points, or 1.53 percent, to
2,012.66 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 104.32 points, or 2.08 percent,
to 4,903.09.
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq had their worst starts to a
year since 2001.
All 10 S&P sectors ended lower, but the energy index .SPNY
was down the least, with a loss of just 0.2 percent.
Crude oil ended a
volatile session down slightly following concern about Middle East
tensions, but Brent turned
higher late.
Tesla (TSLA.O) fell
6.9 percent to $223.41. The electric car maker delivered 17,400 vehicles in the
fourth quarter, just above the low end of its guidance.
About 8.5 billion shares
changed hands on U.S. exchanges, above the 7.2 billion daily average for the
past 20 trading days, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 2,127
to 977, for a 2.18-to-1 ratio on the downside; on the Nasdaq, 2,202 issues fell
and 652 advanced for a 3.38-to-1 ratio favoring decliners.
The S&P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 14 new lows; the
Nasdaq recorded 12 new highs and 113 new lows.
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