Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 7.20.18 (plus Supreme Court nom history)

It is time for the summation which this week includes jobless claims falling to their lowest level since 1969 and though two more rate hike odds have made it into the negative column namely because they may impact some short term dampening of the stock market, they should be in the positive column since they will be good for the long term health of the economy.  After all, rates have been too low for too long and is one of the reasons there is so much uncertainty in the markets. 


The strengthening dollar also made it into the negative column.  It used to be that a strong dollar was a good thing and that has only changed because so many U.S. companies do business overseas.   Oh well, the bonus this week is another instructive graphic showing the history of all the Supreme Court nominees from the past 30 odd years and illustrating something that should be self-evident, that they tend to be partisan.  Oh well, it was a beautiful weekend and hope everyone enjoyed it. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 7.20.18

July 20, 2018 4:00pm by Barry Ritholtz

Succinct Summations for the week ending July 20th, 2018

Positives:

1. Jay Powell’s Congressional testimony was uneventful (thank heavens for the little things);
2. Index of leading economic indicators rose 0.5%, beating expected 0.4%.
3. Jobless claims fell 8k w/o/w from 215k to 207k, the lowest level since 1969.
4. Retail sales rose 0.5% m/o/m, in line with expectations.
5. Industrial productions rose 0.6% in June, meeting expectations.
6. Business inventories rose 0.4% m/o/m, higher than the previous 0.3% rise.

Negatives:

1. Short rates are now at 10 year highs, the odds favor the Fed will keep tightening. Rate hike odds are about 60% for two more.
2. US dollar strengthened against a variety of currencies — particular weakness in Chinese Yuan will be a challenge if it continues
3. MBA home mortgage applications fell a seasonally adjusted 5% w/o/w.
4. Housing starts fell from 1.350M to 1.173M m/o/m, the lowest annualized rate since last September.
5. Same store sales rose 3.3% w/o/w, less than the previous 5.2% rise;
6. Natural gas in storage rose 46 bcf w/o/w, lower than the previous increase of 51 bcf