Sunday, July 4, 2021

Epic Bubble

For this 245th  Independence Day celebration I submit this week's edition of PBS' WealthTrack which very appropriately tackles the subject of this very long bull market, or what they call the big market "melt up," what lies behind it and where it's going.  Hope everyone has enjoyed the holiday so far. Looking for another hot one tomorrow.  Have fun with it.  


7-1-21 EPIC BUBBLE -  A message from Consuelo - July 1, 2021

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July 1, 2021

Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,

We are celebrating the launch of WealthTrack’s18th season on public television this week! We feel so fortunate to serve you. 

When WEALTHTRACK launched in July of 2005 our mission was to help our audience and ourselves build financial security to last a lifetime through disciplined, long-term, diversified investing.  We vowed to seek out the best minds in the financial business to guide us. 

This week’s guest is unquestionably one of them. 

We’ll be joined by legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham, Co-Founder of the global investment management firm, GMO, where his title is Long-term Investment Strategist, having been its Chief Investment Strategist for many years before stepping down. Grantham is also a member of GMO’s asset allocation team. The firm oversees almost $67 billion in assets for mostly institutional clients. 

Grantham is known for his prescient calls about market extremes and game changing turning points. I will add that being far out of consensus is never popular. 

He saw the tech stock bubble inflating in 1997, three years before it actually burst. It was an early call that cost GMO half of their asset allocation book of business at the time.  

In the late 2000’s he warned of the developing subprime mortgage and credit bubble, and came close to calling the actual 2008 bull market peak. He then called the market bottom nearly to the day in March of 2009. 

When Grantham appeared on WEALTHTRACK in 2018 he was predicting a possible market melt-up, a powerful late stage two to three year long market rally before an inevitable decline. 

He got the melt-up right, even when figuring in the brief, 2020 pandemic induced bear market. And of course the bull continues to this day. The U.S. stock market had an impressive first half of the year. The S&P 500 gained 14.4% to close at 4297.5, it’s 34th record close for the year.   

The market’s record setting performance is one of the many reasons that Grantham issued his “epic” bubble call in January in his essay titled: “Waiting For the Last Dance”:  

“The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative investor behavior, I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history, right along with the South Sea bubble, 1929, and 2000.

These great bubbles are where fortunes are made and lost – and where investors truly prove their mettle…  make no mistake – for the majority of investors today, this could very well be the most important event of your investing lives.” 

On this week’s show Grantham will explain why he is calling this a bubble of epic proportions and suggest ways that investors can handle it.     

If you miss the program on public television, the show is always available on our website.  The WEALTHTRACK podcast is available on Stitcher and SoundCloud as well as iTunes and Spotify.You can also find the WEALTHTRACK podcast on Stitcher and SoundCloud as well as iTunes and Spotify.

Please also explore our YouTube channel, where you can watch this show along with Jeremy Grantham’s previous interviews. You’ll find our extensive archive of interviews with financial thought leaders and great investors there as well.

We appreciate that many of you have watched WEALTHTRACK from the beginning. We thank you, along with our new viewers, for spending your time with us. Have a celebratory 4th of July weekend, and make the week ahead a healthy, profitable and productive one.

Best regards,

Consuelo

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