What a shellacking, the Dow opened some 600 points down but slowly recovered to regain all but 50 points by 2 pm but then fell again to close down 253.  This was to be expected as on this final day of Q2 all the indexes were looking at their worst first-half losses in many years, the S&P since 1970, the Nasdaq since ever, the Dow since 1962.  As today’s expert summed it, “All year it’s been a tug of war between inflation and slowing growth, balancing tightening financial conditions to address inflation concerns but to avoid outright panic.”  And on a much more dire note, “We are more than likely already in a recession. The only question is how harsh will it be?”  

Of course Powell has been on record that the Fed’s tightening policy may produce a mild recession but much better to have a mild recession this year than a major one next.  But will they be able to control it so it remains mild?  More dire predictions: “It’s very unlikely we’ll see a soft landing.” So at least in some quarters there seems little confidence that the recession will be mild.  As reported yesterday, Q2 reporting will tell all.  Volume was a tad below average at 12.6 billion. 

Thu  June 30, 2022  4:24 PM

S&P 500 closes the book on its steepest first-half slide since 1970

By Stephen Culp

DJ: 31,029.31  +82.32        NAS: 11,177.89  -3.65          S&P: 3,818.83  -2.72        6/29

DJ: 30,775.43  -253.88       NAS: 11,028.74  -149.16      S&P: 3,785.38  -33.45      6/30

NEW YORK, June 30 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended lower on Thursday, crossing the finish line of a grim month and quarter, a dismal coda to the S&P 500's worst first half in more than half a century.  All three major U.S. stock indexes finished the month and the second quarter in negative territory, with the S&P 500 notching its steepest first-half percentage drop since 1970.  The Nasdaq had its largest-ever January-June percentage drop, while the Dow suffered its biggest first-half percentage plunge since 1962.  All three indexes posted their second straight quarterly declines. The last time that happened was in 2015 for the S&P and the Dow, and 2016 for the Nasdaq.

The year began with spiking cases of COVID-19 due to the Omicron variant. Then came Russia's invasion of Ukraine, decades-high inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, which have stoked fears of a possible recession. read more  "All year it’s been a tug-of-war between inflation and slowing growth, balancing tightening financial conditions to address inflation concerns but trying to avoid outright panic," said Paul Kim, chief executive officer at Simplify ETFs in New York. "I think we are more than likely already in a recession and right now the only question is how harsh will the recession be?"  "I think it’s very unlikely that we’ll see a soft landing," Kim added. 

 

Economic data released on Thursday did little to allay those fears. Disposable income inched lower, consumer spending decelerated, inflation remained hot and jobless claims inched higher. read more  "We’ve started to see a slowdown in consumer spending," Said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, in New York. "And it seems that inflation is taking its toll on the average consumer and that translates to corporate earnings which is what ultimately drives the stock market."  The graphic below shows year-on-year growth of core inflation indicators, all of which suggest that while a peak appears to have been reached in March, they all continue to soar well above the Fed's average annual 2% target: 

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 253.88 points, or 0.82%, to 30,775.43, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 33.45 points, or 0.88%, to 3,785.38 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 149.16 points, or 1.33%, to 11,028.74.  Eight of the 11 major S&P sectors ended down, with utilities  (.SPLRCU)  leading the gainers and energy (.SPNY) notching the largest percentage drop.  But energy was to only major sector to post a year-to-date gain, aided by crude prices spiking over supply concerns due to Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The major stock indexes lost ground in June, with the S&P 500 logging its largest June percentage decline since the financial crisis.  Second-quarter reporting season begins in several weeks, and 130 of the companies in the S&P 500 have pre-announced. Of those, 45 have been positive and 77 have been negative, resulting in a negative/positive ratio of 1.7 stronger than the first quarter but weaker than a year ago, according to Refinitiv data.  Worries over inflation dampening consumer demand and threatening profit margins will have market participants listening closely to forward guidance.

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA.O) fell 7.3% as its quarterly profit plunged 76%, hurt by its opioid settlement with Florida and a decrease in U.S. pharmacy sales on waning demand for COVID-19 vaccinations. read more

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.75-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.52-to-1 ratio favored decliners.  The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 42 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 17 new highs and 367 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 12.58 billion shares, compared with the 12.86 billion average over the last 20 trading days.