Bear Market Recession

Are we or are we not headed for recession?  Are we or are we not already in recession?  These are the questions that are addressed in this week's edition of the PBS program WealthTrack as Consuelo Mack interviews Wall Street guru David Rosenberg.  Happy 4th of July!  

June 30, 2022
 

Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,

Ouch! The S&P 500 ended the first half of the year with its worst performance since 1970, down more than 20%, cementing its bear market status. And the recession drumbeat is getting louder. This morning, leading Wall Street economist, Nancy Lazar told clients “a recession is coming sooner than you think” PiperlSandler’s Global Chief Economist blames “sticky inflation”, “very aggressive Fed tightening, and a “severe corporate profit recession” for her forecast of a mild recession with the economy contracting starting in the final quarter of this year into the first half of next year. 

But this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest is way ahead of her and the few others just joining the recession club. He’s been warning clients about the likelihood of a downturn for months. 

This week WEALTHTRACK is celebrating the launch of our 19th season and what better way to mark it than to sit down with a guest whose outspoken and meticulously researched opinions frequently challenge the prevailing wisdom on Wall Street?   

Our guest is David Rosenberg, President, Chief Economist and Strategist at his independent economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research which he founded in January 2020.

For the decade before that Rosenberg was Chief Economist and Strategist at Canadian asset management firm Gluskin Sheff and prior to that he made his reputation as Chief North American Economist at Bank America Merrill Lynch where he  was consistently ranked an all-star analyst by institutional investors. His daily Breakfast with Dave newsletter has long been considered a must read by retail and institutional investors alike. 

Which prevailing views is Rosenberg challenging now?

High inflation is at the top of the Federal Reserve’s, Washington's and Wall Street’s list.  Rosenberg says they are looking at the wrong numbers and that disinflation is already taking hold. 

Interest rates are expected to go higher for longer.  Rosenberg cites evidence of economic slowing which will require easing sooner than expected. 

As I just mentioned, the likelihood of recession is still being debated. Rosenberg is forecasting a recession this year.  

What about the already steep bear market decline? Rosenberg warns about the lure of bear market rallies. 

If you miss the program on public television, the show is always available on our website.  The WEALTHTRACK podcast is available on Stitcher and SoundCloud as well as iTunes and Spotify.

Please also explore our YouTube channel, where you can watch this show along with Dave Rosenberg’s previous interviews. You’ll find our extensive archive of interviews with financial thought leaders and great investors there as well.

We very much appreciate that so many of you have watched WEALTHTRACK from the beginning!  We thank you, along with our new viewers, for spending your valuable time with us. Have a celebratory 4th of July weekend, and make the week ahead a healthy, profitable and productive one. 

Best regards,

Consuelo