Wall Street rises as inflation keeps cooling

I haven’t mentioned this before but it’s been building for some time now. It’s been getting harder and harder to find a daily market summary to write this report. Since it’s been years since the Wall Street Journal has published its summaries (which I had used for decades), I’ve always used Reuters Market News as my source but they’ve been doing an increasingly better job of hiding these reports, such that sometimes it takes ½ an hour or more to find one.  Today was the worst yet.  I couldn’t find anything and finally, after more than an hour of searching, found this summary by the AP.  If I continue to be unable to find this information, I may be discontinuing this blog.  I’m only hoping that Trump’s arraignment today may have been an inciting factor that pushed all the other news off the page. 

As for today, the CPI report showed that inflation had come down, at 4% more than half of the 9.1% it was last summer which triggered a widespread rally boosting the Dow 145 points and creating a foregone consensus now that tomorrow’s Fed announcement will be a rate pause. The better news is that the job market has proven so resilient that all the predictions earlier this year of a for-sure recession in Q3 have now gone by the wayside.  Volume was higher at 11.8 billion. (Below is a rather dramatic graph that shows how CPI has fallen.)

Stock market today: Wall Street rises as inflation keeps cooling

Tue, June 13, 2023 at 5:29 AM EDT

DJ: 34,066.33  +189.55        NAS: 13,461.92  +202.78        S&P: 4,338.93  +40.07     6/12

DJ: 34,212.12  +145.79        NAS: 13,573.32  +111.40        S&P: 4,369.01  +30.08     6/13

NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks climbed Tuesday after a cooler reading on inflation cemented Wall Street’s bet that the Federal Reserve will hold off on hiking interest rates this week.

The S&P 500 rose 30.08 points, or 0.7%, to 4,369.01, its highest level since April 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 145.79, or 0.4%, to 34,212.12, while the Nasdaq composite rallied 111.40, or 0.8%, to 13,573.32.

The U.S. stock market has been on a roll amid hopes the economy can avoid a severe recession and inflation can fall enough for the Federal Reserve to ease off its rate increases. Tuesday’s report showed that food, fuel and other prices for consumers were 4% higher in May than a year earlier, the latest slowdown from inflation's peak of 9.1% last summer.  

The data pushed traders to immediately amp up bets for the Fed on Wednesday to announce no change to interest rates. If it does, that would mark the first meeting in more than a year where it doesn’t hike rates.  The Fed has already pulled its benchmark short-term rate up to its highest level since 2007, which has slowed inflation but has also helped cause several U.S. bank failures and a contraction in the manufacturing industry.

Nvidia rallied 3.9% and was the strongest force pushing up the S&P 500, along with other technology stocks. Tech and other high-growth stocks are seen as some of the biggest beneficiaries of an ease up on rate hikes.  Nvidia has gotten an added boost from Wall Street's recent frenzy around artificial intelligence, which has helped a select group of stocks soar to huge gains this year.  But unlike earlier this year, when a small cadre of stocks was responsible for most of the S&P 500's gains, Tuesday's climb was widespread, with four out of five stocks in the index rising.

Raw-material producers and industrial companies had some of the biggest gains in the S&P 500 amid hopes for a resilient economy. Miner Freeport-McMoRan rose 5.3%, and United Airlines climbed 3.7%, for example.

For all the optimism, though, much of Wall Street doesn't believe the end has arrived yet for rate hikes. Many traders expect the Fed to resume raising rates in July, even if it holds steady this week.  Tuesday’s inflation report showed that overall inflation still too high, as are price gains underneath the surface. The Fed prefers to look at inflation after stripping out food, fuel and housing costs, hoping to get a better view of where the trend is heading. Such “supercore” inflation is still above the Fed’s comfort level.

The worry is that additional hikes by the Fed will mean more pressure on the U.S. banking system when it’s already cracked under higher rates. Bank customers are pulling deposits in search of higher yields at money-market funds. At the same time, higher rates are knocking down the values of bonds that banks bought and other investments they made when rates were low.  Three high-profile U.S. bank failures since March have shaken confidence in the system, causing some banks to toughen lending standards for households and businesses. That puts additional brakes on the economy, raising the risk of a recession.  Zions Bancorp. fell 1.6% after it appeared to cut its forecast for upcoming net interest income in an investor presentation.

Just two weeks remain until the start of the third quarter of the year. That's notable because many investors came into this year predicting a recession would hit in the third quarter, yet the job market has remained remarkably resilient and propped up the economy.  “Today, the recession has not arrived, and we are witnessing that reckoning in public market equity valuations via the recent rally,” said Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, deputy chief investment officer of multi asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

But that doesn't mean the economy is in the clear. “With inflation stubbornly high, we do see the business cycle eventually ending in recession, as the Fed will have to break the back of the labor market to make material progress toward their 2% target” on inflation, she said.

In the bond market, yields initially dropped after the inflation report, but later recovered. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.83% from 3.74% late Monday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.  The two-year yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, rose to 4.69% from 4.58%.

In markets abroad, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.6% after China's central bank lowered its one-week lending rate for the first time since last summer. That appeared to reflect official concern about the health of China's economic recovery after growth in factory and consumer activity weakened.

The support from the world's second-largest economy helped to push up the price of crude oil, which has struggled over the last year on worries about weaker demand. A barrel of U.S. crude rose $2.30 to $69.42. Brent crude, the international standard, gained $2.45 to $74.29 per barrel.

Per the CBOE, 11.8 billion shares were traded. 

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AP Business Writers Matt Ott and Joe McDonald contributed.