Nasdaq ends lower ahead of big tech earnings, focus on Fed

It was a picture of caution today as the tech indexes suffered most of the day deeply in the red when both Google and Microsoft fell after their Q4 reports.  There is concern that these “Magnificent Seven” stocks have been doing too well and may be on the verge of underperforming. There was also the jobs report showing an unexpected increase in new openings with not enough workers to hire, adding further concerns that the job market remains too hot for rate cuts to be coming anytime soon, let alone as early as March. (See the chart for the disconnect between jobs and hiring.)  

Wednesday will conclude the January Fed meeting and investors will be parsing Powell’s comments hoping for clues that rate cuts will be coming in Q2.  There is good news. With tech being cautiously sold off, the traditional Dow has benefitted with a 133-point jump. Q4 continues great guns with 78% of 144 companies beating estimates and the new earnings forecast now at 5.5% vs 4.7% a month ago. Volume remains light at 10.3 billion as investors await much more data in the next few days. 

Nasdaq ends lower ahead of big tech earnings, focus on Fed

By Stephen Culp

Tue January 30, 2024 4:34 PM

DJ: 38,333.45  +224.02        NAS: 15,628.04  +172.68        S&P: 4,927.93  +36.96     1/29

DJ: 38,467.31  +133.86        NAS: 15,509.90  -118.15         S&P: 4,924.97  -2.96        1/30

NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost ground on Tuesday as the market awaited a spate of high profile corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve convened for its monetary policy meeting.  The S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab closed nominally lower after touching a new intraday high, while the blue-chip Dow finished higher.  Shares of Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O), opens new tab and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), opens new tab fell in extended trading after the companies released their quarterly earnings reports.

"There's a lot of trepidation over the start of the earnings releases from 'the magnificent seven,'" said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia. "The stocks have done incredibly well and there's a little bit of caution being expressed right now and maybe rightly so."  Economically sensitive sectors such as Dow Transports (.DJT), opens new tab, chips (.SOX), opens new tab and small caps (.RUT), opens new tab underperformed the broader market.

The Labor Department reported an unexpected rise in job openings, hinting that the market remains too solid for the Fed to consider cutting its key policy rate as soon as March. 

    JOLTS

 

The Fed is expected to end its policy meeting on Wednesday with a decision to let its key interest rate stand at 5.25%-5.50%. Its accompanying statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's subsequent press conference will be parsed for clues on the timing and number of rate cuts this year.  "I'm going to be looking for language that matches the storyline that we hope to see in 2024, that sometime in the second quarter we'll see the beginning of a reduction in rates," Tuz added. "I'm going to be listening for language that confirms that that's the most likely scenario."

Fourth-quarter reporting season has shifted into overdrive, with announcements so far by 144 of the companies in the S&P 500. Of those, 78% have delivered consensus-beating earnings, according to LSEG.  On aggregate, analysts now expect fourth-quarter earnings growth of 5.5% over last year, up from the 4.7% seen at the beginning of the month, LSEG data showed.

United Parcel Service (UPS.N), opens new tab slid 8.2% after the package deliverer issued a disappointing annual revenue forecast, weighing on transports.  General Motors (GM.N), opens new tab jumped 7.8% after the automaker provided an upbeat 2024 earnings forecast, and promised more capital return to shareholders.  Ford Motor (F.N), opens new tab rose 2.0%.

The S&P 500 declined 0.06% to end at 4,924.97 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC), opens new tab fell 0.76% to 15,509.90 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), opens new tab rose 0.35% to 38,467.31 points.  Six of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose, led by financials (.SPSY), opens new tab, up 1.2%, followed by a 1.01% gain in energy (.SPNY), opens new tab.

Boeing Co (BA.N), opens new tab shares slid 2.3% ahead of its quarterly earnings report expected before Wednesday's opening bell. Scrutiny into the planemaker is intensifying over its 737 MAX 7 after a mid-air cabin blowout on Jan. 5.  Citigroup (C.N), opens new tab and Bank of America (BAC.N), opens new tab rose over 3% following rating upgrades from Morgan Stanley, pushing the S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK), opens new tab up 2.1%.  Johnson Controls (JCI.N), opens new tab dropped 3.8% after the building products supplier lowered its full-year profit estimate, while MSCI (MSCI.N), opens new tab advanced 9.3% after the global index provider posted a higher fourth-quarter profit.  Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O), opens new tab rose 3.5% after the server seller projected stronger-than-expected quarterly sales.

Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX), opens new tab by a 1.2-to-one ratio.  Across the U.S. stock market (.AD.US), opens new tab, declining stocks outnumbered rising ones by a 1.4-to-one ratio.  The S&P 500 posted 80 new highs and no new lows. The Nasdaq recorded 126 new highs and 75 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was relatively light, with 10.3 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 11.5 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.