S&P 500 slips as grim retail sales data overshadows trade hopes

After three up days, the Dow lost a little ground today when December retail sales were reported to have suffered their biggest drop in  nine years, dragging the index down 103 points.  This would make sense in view of yesterday’s report that consumer prices had not risen.  So the flip side about good news on inflation is that prices did not go up because of weakened demand.  Today’s weaker economic data has now lowered Q4 earnings growth to 16.2 percent from 16.6 just yesterday.  Q1 outlook remains unchanged at 0.3 percent year-on-year decline.  Volume was again below recent averages at just under 6.2 billion. 

Wall Street advances on trade hopes, tame inflation data

It was another 3-digit increase in the Dow today as market optimism over both China and a sign off on the border agreement boosted the index 117 points.  There was also encouragement from a report showing benign inflation indicating the Fed may hold rates steady for a while.  With two-thirds of the S&P reporting the Q4 earnings growth estimate has now been increased from 16.5 percent a few days ago to 16.6 percent today.  Q1 estimates remain at a 0.3 percent decrease from last year.  Volume remains below average at 6.9 billion. 

Wall Street advances on trade hopes, deal to avert government shutdown

It was just straight up today – a full 372 points on the Dow – with the market being uber-optimistic about a positive resolution to the trade war AND a sign off on border security to avoid the 2/15 government shutdown.  The main trigger today was Trump’s remarks that he was willing to let the March 1 tariff deadline with China slide with or without a new deal, which great allayed fears of the previously promised dramatic increase in tariffs.  Q4 remains on track with 71 percent of S&P companies beating estimates and Q1 got slightly more dour with the earnings growth projections now sliding from a 0.2 percent loss from last year to now a 0.3 percent loss.  Volume remains a little below average at just over 7 billion shares traded. 

Wall Street wavers as investors eye trade talks, growth fears

It was yet another very choppy day but at least the Dow stayed pretty close to even all session to finally close 53 down.  Optimism about negotiations with China plus a tentative deal on the border to avert another shutdown was still overshadowed by the lurking concerns of a global slowdown.  Still, Q4 continues to go well with 2/3 of the S&P reporting and 71 percent of those beating estimates.  Today’s estimate on Q4 earnings growth jumped to 16.5 percent from 15.8 percent, and growth for Q1 shrank from losing 0.1 percent over last year to now losing 0.2 percent.  This seems like such a miniscule thing to get into a snit over but there are always those in the market who need something to worry about.  Volume was quite a bit lower than the 4-week average at 6.2 billion, which sort of indicates that investors are waiting to see what happens with both China and the shutdown. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 2.8.19 (plus A few Tips on Business Cycle Forecasting)

Below is the customary weekly summation, Jeff Bezos standing up to the notorious National Enquirer being the big winner in the credit column and the predicted decline of Q1 being #1 in the debit column.  The bonus this Sunday is a column from Friday's Big Picture blog about how business cycle forecasting is done, something that will help us all make better investment decisions.  It's going to be a messy snow and ice week so stay safe. 

Confessions of a Content Marketer

Your reading material this weekend is an article from Institutional Investor posted on The Big Picture blog giving some rather detailed insight into an area in which we all have an interest -- financial writing.  The author presents a rather thorough breakdown as to how all those white papers, prospectuses annual reports, fund brochures, newsletters and everything else financial designed to persuade us to invest get produced.  Knowing their tricks is a valuable tool to help avoiding their traps.  Enjoy the pleasant weekend.

S&P, Nasdaq edge higher as earnings offset trade fears

Though the S&P and Nasdaq just barely broke a two day losing streak, the Dow took another bath today losing nearly 300 points by noon before gradually edging up to close just 63 down.  More positive Q4 reporting accounted for much of the comeback as well as yet another announcement from the White House that Mnuchin will go to Beijing next week for another round of talks after yesterday’s letdown that Trump would not be meeting with China before the March 1^st deadline.  But the morning crash revolved yet again around market anxieties over the trade war and eroding confidence that it will be resolved satisfactorily.