Though the S&P and Nasdaq just barely broke a two day losing streak, the Dow took another bath today losing nearly 300 points by noon before gradually edging up to close just 63 down.  More positive Q4 reporting accounted for much of the comeback as well as yet another announcement from the White House that Mnuchin will go to Beijing next week for another round of talks after yesterday’s letdown that Trump would not be meeting with China before the March 1^st deadline.  But the morning crash revolved yet again around market anxieties over the trade war and eroding confidence that it will be resolved satisfactorily.  


More tariffs are seen as a virtual certainty but with some optimism that some sort of a new agreement will temper it.  The S&P is now up more than 15 percent above its 20 month low in December.  But what a difference a single word makes.  It has been reported in recent days that the forecast for Q1 had “shrunk to 0.1 percent from 5.3 percent” estimated last month. Today changing just one word – analysts now expect Q1 profits “to dip 0.1 percent from the year before.”  So it’s not a forecast for near zero earnings in Q1 ’19 but rather for 1/10^th percent fewer earnings than Q1 ’18!  That’s quite a different statement.  Words count!  Now the question is – which forecast is correct?  (Per CNBC, the latter is correct.)  Volume was below average at 6.8 billion. 

fri  FEBRUARY 8, 2019 / 5:13 pm 

S&P, Nasdaq edge higher as earnings offset trade fears

April Joyner

 DJ:  25,106.33  -63.20        NAS:  7,298.20  +9.85         S&P:  2,707.88  +1.83       2/8

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The benchmark S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq edged upward to snap a two-day losing streak on Friday as positive corporate results offset lingering skepticism over the United States and China reaching a trade deal before the March 1 deadline.  Shares of Coty Inc, Mattel Inc and Motorola Solutions Inc jumped after the companies reported better-than-expected quarterly results.  In addition, shares of Electronic Arts Inc, which plunged on Wednesday after the company’s quarterly results, surged after the videogame publisher said that its game Apex Legends had attracted 10 million players in three days.  Electronic Arts and Motorola Solutions were among the top boosts to the S&P 500.

Earlier, U.S. stocks dragged as trade concerns continued to weigh on investor sentiment. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he did not plan to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping before the deadline set for reaching an agreement.  U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will travel to Beijing for principal-level meetings on Feb. 14-15, a statement from the White House said.

As the session wore on, Wall Street’s major indexes regained lost ground.  “What’s expected, based on the way the market has performed, is that there is a risk that we’ll see another round of tariff-hiking, but that risk will be overridden by some type of agreement,” said John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management in New York. “These are not indices that are showing extreme investor concern at this point.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.20 points, or 0.25 percent, to 25,106.33, the S&P 500 gained 1.83 points, or 0.07 percent, to 2,707.88 and the Nasdaq Composite added 9.85 points, or 0.14 percent, to 7,298.20.  For the week, the Dow added 0.17 percent, the S&P 500 rose 0.05 percent, and the Nasdaq gained 0.47 percent.

The S&P 500 has risen more than 15 percent from 20-month lows in December, spurred by a dovish Federal Reserve and largely positive fourth-quarter earnings, as well as hopes for an eventual U.S.-China trade deal.  Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results, 71.5 percent have beaten profit estimates, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.  However, analysts now expect current-quarter profit to dip 0.1 percent from the year before, not grow the 5.3 percent estimated at the start of the year.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.04-to-1 ratio favored decliners.  The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 35 new highs and 37 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 6.83 billion shares, compared to the 7.46 billion average over the last 20 trading days.