Wall Street retreats from record on trade cloudiness

It was such a great Q3 day with Apple and Facebook both turning in stellar reports.  But the most spectacular development has been that in three short days the earnings forecast for Q3 has gone from a -2.0% (vs a -3.2% in early October) to an astounding -0.8% today.  (What are the bets that it’s going to be in positive numbers this time next week?)  But despite all this good news, the Dow still tanked 140 points and the culprit was good old trade war angst again.  Encouraging news yesterday and the index was up 115.  Today there’s a report that Chinese officials have doubts about ever being able to make a deal with Trump and the market sinks again.  As today’s expert comments that the rallies have been triggered by so much anticipation on the trade deal and that “this market would come in (sink) very quickly if in fact word got out the Chinese are completely walking away.”  So it’s all pins and needles until further notice.  Volume was quite brisk at 7.9 billion. 

S&P closes at record on Fed bump

The Fed did exactly what the market was expecting – another rate cut AND a lower target – which boosted the Dow another 115 and put the S&P at another all-time high for the second time in three sessions (as stated in the article, or put another way, the third time in four sessions). What further boosted confidence was the Fed statement that “monetary policy is in a good place” remaining open to what data shows them.  As today’s expert summed it up, “Flexibility is what the market wants to see.”  Q3 continues going well with 74% of the S&P beating estimates. So growth slowed less than expected in Q3 but, better yet, resilient consumer spending has allayed recession fears.  Volume was just under 7 billion. 

Wall St. dips after S&P notches record, Fed on deck

It was a day of well-deserved fence sitting as investors took a breather from yesterday’s rally and continued to observe the unfolding of Q3 which continues to go remarkably well with 77% of nearly half of the S&P reporting and beating expectations.  And there is still Apple, Facebook, Exxon and Chevron coming later this week.  As today’s expert pointed out, “The encouraging thing is that we are trading more on earnings and less on rumor, which is a nice change of pace and how the market should work.”  Now all eyes are on the Fed meeting being held Wednesday and Thursday and the almost unanimous consensus that another rate cut will come from it.  Volume was around 6.5 billion. 

Trade optimism, Fed rate-cut expectation sends S&P 500 to record

There was increased optimism today regarding trade negotiations with China and that combined with even more increased optimism over another Fed rate cut later this week pushed the Dow up 132 points.  The Dow is now less than 1% below its all-time high, the S&P achieved a new record for the second straight day and the Nasdaq closed just 5 points below its all-time high.  The oddsmakers have increased the likelihood of a Fed rate hike from last month’s 49% to 94% today and 78% of the 204 S&P 500 companies that have thus far reported have beaten estimates.  The Q3 outlook remains at a minus 2% but that’s a big improvement on the minus 3.2% that was in the forecast just two weeks ago.  Today’s Reuter’s report did not contain volume data but, per the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), volume was 6.6 billion, a tad above the 4-week average. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.25.19 (plus The White Cliffs of Brexit)

As always Sunday nights bring the weekly summation, this time the positives being that the markets are within a hair's breadth of all time highs again --  and the negatives being the usual.  In fact, depending on your point of view, the negatives concerning impeachment and the trade war might also be in the positives column.  The bonus this time is a lengthy (3300 words) article from this week's The New Republic that explains in detail everything you do and don't want to know about Brexit, raising the question that has been puzzling the world since the beginning: with all the chaos and detriments that Brexit will surely be raining down on the British, why are so many of them so anxious for it to happen?  Maybe after 3300 words, we'll have a better understanding.  Hope everyone had a great if soggy weekend.  More big rains due for Halloween. 

Use Fractional Shares for Retirement Investments

We've all heard about fractional share investing and some of us may have even used it.  So when this article popped up on last week's edition of U.S. News Invested, it looked like a really good mini-course on this very topic and so I offer it for your weekend reading.  Besides which, it looks like a great way in conjunction with the Acorn Advisers program that was discussed a short time ago, to begin to continue building the old retirement nest egg on literally a daily basis. Enjoy the rest of the weekend and try to dry out from the deluge we're having. 

S&P 500 nears record high on trade progress, upbeat Intel earnings

Week #2 of Q3 ended on a very positive note with reports that the trade negotiations are going well and the S&P hitting a new record high after its last closing record July 26^th.  The S&P had its biggest gain in seven weeks, the Nasdaq in eight weeks.  Intel had the best report shooting its stock up over 8% and the overall chip index to its own new record high.  All in all, the Dow closed up 152.  And next week will be even bigger with giants Apple, Alphabet, Pfizer and Merck reporting.  Volume was a tad below the 4-week average with just under 6.3 billion shares traded.