As today's expert from Wunderlich Securities commented, "The Fed will do more damage waiting until December to raise rather than start the normalization process ... if they don't raise rates this week, it's a bad signal." While I don't agree at all that a December rate hike will do more harm, I do wholeheartedly agree that the sooner the rate hike occurs, the sooner this volatility will calm down and we finally after all these years get back to some sense of pre-recession normalcy. And the soothsayers today did up the ante. In just one day, the odds of a rate hike have been increased from just over 1 in 5 to just over 1 in 4. I still believe that any announcement tomorrow, if indeed there even is one, will be for a rate hike coming in December, not in September. But today's rally does represent a positive sign that the market now seems ready to handle whatever the announcement is. The very light volume of 5.8 billion vs the 8 billion average of the last four weeks would suggest that most investors are not yet willing to place a bet. So tomorrow we may very well see fireworks again.
Markets |
Wall St. rallies as clock ticks toward Fed decision
DJ: 16,599.85 +228.89 NAS: 4,860.52
+54.76 S&P: 1,978.09
+25.06
REUTERS/BRENDAN
MCDERMID
U.S. stocks rallied over 1 percent on Tuesday after data
showed healthy growth in consumer spending but did little to remove uncertainty
about whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates this week.
Speculation about when
the Fed will end seven years of near-zero interest rates has dogged Wall Street
for several months, with the picture complicated by recent market turbulence that some
see as justification for the central bank to hold off.
"The debate around the Fed continues, but the Fed will do
more damage waiting for December to raise rather than start the normalization
process," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich
Securities.
"If they don't raise
rates this week, it's a bad signal."
The Commerce Department said core retail sales rose 0.4 percent
in August after an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in July. It was the
latest sign of sturdy economic momentum and suggested the recent stock market
selloff had little immediate impact on U.S. household spending.
U.S. interest rates
futures implied traders place a 27 percent chance the Fed would end its
near-zero interest rate policy on Thursday FFU5, up from 23 percent late on
Monday, according to CME Group's FedWatch program.
"It's tough to call," said Peter Jankovskis, co-chief
investment officer at OakBrook Investments LLC in Lisle, Illinois. "In the
context of the world economy and the uncertainty around China, they
might give it another month."
The Dow Jones industrial
average .DJI rose 228.89 points, or 1.4 percent, to
end at 16,599.85 points. The S&P 500 .SPX gained 1.28 percent to 1,978.09 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 1.14 percent to 4,860.52.
All 10 major S&P sectors were up, with the industrials
index's .SPLRCI 1.68 percent gain leading advancers and GE (GE.N)
rising 2.14 percent.
Stocks have been volatile
since China devalued its currency in August. The
S&P 500 has had moves of at least 1 percent in 12 of the past 18 sessions.
The S&P remains down 4 percent for 2015 and recently traded
at 15.4 times expected earnings, a tad cheaper than the 15-year average of 15.6
times earnings, according to Thomson Reuters Starmine.
Shares of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU.N) rose
3.42 percent. The United Auto Workers union said it will keep talking with the
automaker to reach a new contract for the company's U.S. factory workers,
delaying a possible strike at its most profitable operations.
Gray Television (GTN.N)
jumped 13.29 percent after the broadcaster said it would buy Schurz
Communications' television and radio stations for $442.5 million.
Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 2,124 to
926. On the Nasdaq, 1,930
issues rose and 869 fell.
The S&P 500 index showed three new 52-week highs and five
new lows, while the Nasdaqrecorded
39 new highs and 67 new lows.
About 5.8 billion shares
changed hands on U.S. exchanges, below the 8.0 billion daily average for
the previous 20 trading days, according to Thomson Reuters data.
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