So China's manufacturing sector shrunk at its fastest pace in three years last month. Since so much of U.S. manufacturing is tied to China, our sector correspondingly shrunk too to its weakest in two years. Then IMF chief Christine Lagarde came out with her statement that global growth is now expected to be weaker than previously forecast. All in all, an already very nervous market just went screaming towards the exits even though most experts agree that the S&P's new valuation of 15.6 times earnings is now far more attractive than before this correction began. There has been some editorializing that August and September are traditional slump months due to the high numbers of experienced brokers who are on vacation, leaving it to the more inexperienced and panic-prone junior brokers to be reacting to these global blips. There may be some truth to this but I don't think junior brokers are responsible for China's mess. Still, whatever truth there may be to this speaks highly of the current environment being a very ripe buying opportunity. Other good news is that today's trouncing only upped the volatility index a modest 10% which still puts it just a little over half of where it was just a week ago, meaning most investors are not taking the day's events too seriously. The relatively modest volume of 8.9 billion is further evidence that junior brokers may indeed be momentarily in charge and the rest of the market is not too worried.
Markets |
Wall St. turbulence returns as weak China data magnifies
fear
DJ: 16,058.35 -469.68 NAS: 4,636.11
-140.40 S&P: 1,913.85
-58.33
Turmoil returned to Wall Street on Tuesday after a brief
rest, with renewed concerns about China's economy pushing major indexes
down almost 3 percent and intensifying fears of a long-term selloff.
The S&P 500 is now 10 percent lower than its
May record high, with the prospect of slowing global growth and an impending U.S. interest rate
hike curtailing a robust bull run that saw the index gain over 200
percent from the depths of the financial crisis in 2009.
Tuesday's was the S&P's worst drop since Aug. 24, when it
slumped 3.94 percent after three days of increasingly volatile losses.
"The fact we were down in August at a magnitude that is
bigger than we have seen in many years rang some alarm bells," said
Mohannad Aama, managing director of Beam Capital Management LLC in New York.
"The continued uncertainty about China is definitely adding to worries."
China's manufacturing
sector shrank at its fastest pace in three years in August. Other data showed
the pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed last month to its
weakest in over two years.
Adding to the nervousness, International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde said global
economic growth was now likely to be weaker than had been expected just
a few months ago.
The weak data pushed oil prices down more than 7 percent, ending
three days of gains, and also reduced some investors' expectations that the
Federal Reserve would raise interest rates this month.
The CBOE Volatility index, known as Wall Street's "fear
gauge", was up 10.45 percent at 31.40, above its long-term average of 20.
The index had spiked to 53.29 last Monday.
"We haven't see this kind of volatility in a while. It
reminds me of the one we saw during the 2008-2009 crisis," said Art Hogan,
chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities.
The Dow Jones industrial
average .DJI fell 2.84 percent to end at 16,058.35
while the S&P500 .SPX lost 2.96 percent to 1,913.85
points. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 2.94 percent to 4,636.11.
For the year, the Dow is now down 9.9 percent while the S&P is 7.0 percent lower and the Nasdaq is off 9.9 percent.
Those losses have pushed
the S&P 500's valuation down to a relatively
more attractive 15.6 times expected earnings, compared to around 17 for much of
2015, according to Thomson Reuters StarMine data. But investors fear
that the outlook for earnings may darken.
"Earnings estimates are probably higher than they should be
and do not take into account the effect that a global slowdown led by China would have on the U.S.," said Aama.
Netflix (NFLX.O) fell
8.03 percent after Variety reported that Apple (AAPL.O) was
looking to move into the original programming business. Apple fell 4.47
percent.
Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 2,666
to 422. On the Nasdaq, 2,291
issues fell and 563 advanced.
The S&P 500 index showed no new 52-week highs
and 14 new lows, while the Nasdaqrecorded
12 new highs and 57 new lows.
Volume was lighter than in recent days. About
8.9 billion shares traded on U.S. exchanges, compared to an average of
9.4 billion in the past five sessions, according to BATS Global Markets.
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