Sunday, March 13, 2016

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events for 3.11.16

It's the weekly eye-shot with mostly good news, at the top of the list the gains in the S&P for the fourth consecutive week, the first time this has happened since 2013.  This weekend's bonus is Ritholtz's Sunday reading list.  Pay particular attention to item #2: "Why Do Academic Researchers Avoid Behavioral Finance?"  Indeed, why does academia ignore behavioral science when it comes to investments?  As I prepare to begin the two years of CFP training (in about six weeks), I guess maybe I'll find out (or I'll end up teaching them something!)  Also pay especially particular attention to the chart at the end showing how marijuana coming into the U.S. has reached a new low point in the past seven years, half of what it was just a few years ago.  Maybe something's going right with the war on drugs after all.  Hope everyone had a great weekend!


Succinct Summations of Week’s Events for 3.11.16


Succinct Summations for the week ending March 11th 2016

Positives:
  1. S&P 500 gained 1% for the fourth consecutive week for the first time since May 2013.
  2. ECB brings out the bazooka: Purchases ramp to 80 billion euros ($88b) a month, a 33% increase; buys corporate bonds; lowers deposit rate by 0.10 percentage points to minus 0.40 per cent;
  3. Jobless claims fell to 259k and the 4-week moving average is down to 267.5k.
  4. Bloomberg consumer comfort remains strong at 43.8.
  5. MBA mortgage applications grew 0.2% w/o/w. The purchase index is up 30% y/o/y.
  6. Japanese economy was “less bad” in Q4 as GDP gets revised to -1.1% annualized from -1.5% initially
Negatives:
  1. Small business optimism came in at 92.9, below the 94.2 expected and down from 93.9 previously.
  2. Import and export prices remain under pressure, falling 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.
  3. Refi applications fell for 3rd straight week, down 2.3%
  4. Revolving credit outstanding fell m/o/m for the first time since February ’15. Non-revolving credit,driven by student loans and auto debt, outstanding continues to rise, now up to $2.6T.
  5. Chinese export data for February fell a stunning 25.4% y/o/y (in dollars), far above estimates of -14.5%.


10 Sunday Reads

My easy like Sunday morning reads:

• Move Over, Facebook and Netflix: Value Investing Is Rebounding (Barron’s)
• Why do academic researchers avoid behavioral finance? (Alpha Architect)
• Americans’ Home Wealth Recovers $7 Trillion as Prices Firm (Bloomberg) see also How Federal Lending Programs Served as a Big Shadow Stimulus (Real Time Economics)
• Gold’s Best Start Since 1974 Shows Not Just Inflation Hedge (Bloomberg)
• The Great Let’s-Totally-F*ck-Up-Kansas-Experiment Is Nearly Complete (Esquire)
• Updating Our Favorite Performance Chart (A Wealth of Common Sense)
• Stock Buyback Plans, Seen as Shareholder Boon, Can Backfire (NYT)
•Bloomberg Run Might Have Produced President Trump (FiveThirtyEight)
Hilarious! Donald Trump Book Reviews Are Really Intense: Donald Trump’s tweets reveal an obvious truth. He’s missed his calling as a writer of the world’s most singularly intense CliffsNotes. (Buzzfeed)
• Every Playboy Playmate Centerfold Ever (BoingBoing)and also Every Playboy Playmate Centerfold (Imgur)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Jack Bogle, founder of The Vanguard Group, inventor of the index fund.

Marijuana seizures, in pounds, at the southwest border
(Click on the "10 Sunday Reads" link above  to see this very dramatic graph.)  

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