Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.2.16 (+ CFP update)

So I've been without the benefit of modern technology since July 29th when my Dell desktop crapped out on me.  Turned out that the motherboard was fried which made me wonder how I'd been able to use it at all.  The good news is that sometime in the next two or three days I expect to get the call telling me the new desktop is ready for pickup.

Since it's been quite awkward to send emails since 7/29 I've put my nightly tweets and this Marias blog on hold but, with some luck, assuming I do get the new computer this week, I might actually be able to return to a daily update by next Sunday.  More realistically though it's probably going to take a week or so to get the new toy smoothly operational so, if not next weekend, the next after that.  So there may be one more general distribution before I go back to a "subscribers only" since it is currently too difficult to send to subscribers only.  Frankly, until I get the AOL on the new computer, I won't even be able to recover the files that have the subscriber database in it.

Meanwhile, this four-month CFP introductory program will soon be at an end as I have my final session and exam on September 21.  Last Wednesday's exam was by far the roughest as the dual topics of taxation and financial planning were covered in one session.  This is the roughest class I've ever had, due mostly to the very difficult exams for which material must be mastered before it's even covered.  I am assuming that this intensity will let up when we get into the regular program next February, that is we will be tested on material after it's covered rather than before, and that the threat of expulsion if we fail an exam will no longer be part of the program.  Plus, in the regular program next year, we will be taking two months each to cover the same topics we've "surveyed" in this course in each single hour.

 The important thing to be sure is to get a passing grade in this intro course in order to qualify for the internship.  I'm confident I will qualify but am not taking anything for granted.  This final test on the 21st will be on the topic of estate planning and then I find out what the instructor has in mind for me as an internship.  As I've pointed out before, the internship will last about two months, should then theoretically turn into a full-time job offer which, if all the timing goes correctly, should work out that just about the time we are passing the national boards in March 2018 we will also be completing the two-year work requirement.  In May of 2018, just about the time I get certified, I will have been in the program for exactly two years.  The national pass rate for the exam is only 40 percent.  OU's pass rate is 95 percent.

So September 21st is going to be a big day.  By then too I should certainly be back up and running on the nightly updates.  Until then, this again is my weekly contribution with the "succinct summary" Barry Ritholtz publishes every Friday.  There's not a lot of new news this week, just a continuous recycling of the rather longstanding trend now that the market reacts positively to any bad news since bad news means the Fed may not raise interest rates after all, and conversely a negative reaction to good news since a healthy economy means rates will be hiked sooner rather than later.

 For some time now we have been seeing 3-digit volatility on practically a daily basis and this will continue until interest rates get back to normal pre-recession levels.  So as far as I'm concerned, and I'm gratified that most of our more respected economists agree with this, the sooner Fed decides to hike, the better.  Hope everyone had a great holiday weekend.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.2.16

by Barry Ritholtz

Succinct Summations for the week ending September 2nd, 2016

Positives:

1. Personal income rose 0.4% m/o/m, the prior month was revised up from 0.2% to 0.3%.
2. ADP employment came in at 177k, slightly higher than expected. The previous reading was revised from 179k to 194k.
3. Consumer confidence rose from 97.3 to 101.1.
4. Consumer spending rose 0.3%, in line with expectations. The previous month was revised up from 0.4% to 0.5%.
5. Construction spending was flat m/o/m, but the previous reading was revised from -0.6% up to +0.9%.
6. Mortgage applications rose 2.8% after falling 2% in the previous week.
7. Unemployment rate remains low, coming in unchanged at 4.9%.
8. Pending home sales index rose 1.3% m/o/m, above the 0.6% expected increase.

Negatives:

1. Nonfarm payrolls fell from 255k down to 151k and below the 175k expected (the previous reading was revised up to 275k).
2. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% m/o/m, below the 0.2% expected increase.
3. ISM manufacturing fell from 52.6 down to 49.4, and below the 52.2 expected.
4. Chicago PMI fell from 55.8 down to 51.5.
5. Motor vehicle sales fell from 17.9M (annualized) down to 17M. Domestic sales fell from 14.3M down to 13.4M.
6. Jobless claims ticked up, albeit only barely, from 261k to 263k.
7. PMI manufacturing index fell from 52.9 down to 52.