Succinct Summations for the week ending September 16th 2016

Still another week goes by without my new computer.  This is now 7 weeks and once again I am told it will be ready in the next day or two.  In fact, on Friday I was told that it was ready and that I could pick it up tomorrow.  Tomorrow I'll find out if this is yet another entrepreneurial exaggeration or something I can take to the bank.  Next weekend will likely be my final unsolicited distribution.


I attended the MRI group on Monday and, after giving a presentation on the CFP, announced that I would likely continue the distribution to everybody and simply allow those who wished to opt out to inform me as such.  As I noted, people tend to be slow to ask to subscribe but quick to ask to be removed.  So I will simply ask those who wish to be removed to speak up.

Meanwhile, as is my usual commitment, below is the weekly succinct summation.  As has been the trend, the turmoil continues as everyone waits on the Fed's next move.  It is likely that beginning next Sunday, I will abandon the weekly update and resume the daily. Hope everyone had a great weekend.  This will be my last weekend of uncertainty.  On Wednesday I find out if I qualify for the internship and are thereby on my way to becoming a CFP some two years hence.  I suspect it will be a very fast two years.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.16.16

September 16, 2016 4:30pm by Barry Ritholtz

Succinct Summations for the week ending September 16th 2016

Positives:

1. Initial jobless claims were 260k, 5k below the estimate, and essentilally the same as last week (259k). 4 week average = 261k.
2. CPI rose 0.2% m/o/m and 1.1% y/o/y. Core rose 0.3% and 2.3% respectively. The 0.3% rise was the largest since February.
3. Purchase applications to buy a home saw a nice 8.6% week over week rebound; The year over year gain was 7.7%, better than the 6.9% gain last week.
4. Wholesale prices in August were benign with headline PPI zero y/o/y while the core rate was up 1%. Same story with pressure on goods prices and price gains in services.
5. MBA mortgage applications rose 4.2% w/o/w.
6. Philly Fed business outlook survey came in at 12.8, well above expectations.

Negatives:

1. Industrial and manufacturing production fell 0.4% m/o/m.
2. US Retail sales ex auto / gasoline fell 0.1% (again) and was below the estimate of +0.3%. Core sales fell by 0.1%, below the estimate of +0.4%; Auto sales fell by 0.9% m/o/m but are still up 3.9% y/o/y. Building material sales also fell.
3. Consumer price inflation increased 0.2% headline and 0.3% core m/o/m (more than expected). The y/o/y headline gain was 1.1%, the most since January and the core rate was up by 2.3% — the highest level in 8 years.
4. NFIB small business optimism fell to 94.4, down from 94.6, and slightly below expectations.
5. Consumer sentiment fell from 90.8 to 89.8, coming in slightly below expectations.
6. Empire state manufacturing survey came in at -1.99, dragged down by the factory sector and new orders.

BUSINESS NEWS | Mon Sep 12, 2016 5:15pm EDT

S&P 500 racks up sharpest rise since July

By Noel Randewich     

DJ:   18,325.07 +239.62   NAS: 5,211.89  +85.98    S&P: 2,159.04  +31.23                9/12

One day, one Fed commissioner ruminates on the need for a rate hike, and the market sells off.  Another day another commissioner opines that it’s too soon yet for a hike, and the market instantly rebounds.  That’s what happened today today to the tune of 239 points up on the Dow as has happened many times before in the last few years.  Every time someone at the Fed hiccups, the market reacts violently, which is why the wise investor will either ignore these or take advantage of them.  It also helped a lot that we had the weekend for cooler heads to prevail about North Korea’s nuclear test, so that threat is now appropriately returned to the back burner.  The oddsmakers have now cut the likelihood of a September hike in half since Friday, which of course is where it’s always been.  It was only 24 percent at its height to begin with.  Conventional wisdom for months has been that a hike will come in December, if at all.  But the real reason for Friday’s massive selloff is hidden in a little factoid stuck in the footnotes.  The S&P is trading at 17 times earnings, when the norm is 14.  Is it any wonder we had a minor correction?  With today’s Fed hiccup in a positive direction, that correction was almost completely reversed as reflected in the considerably above average volume of 7.8 billion shares. 

BUSINESS NEWS | Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:46pm EDT

Drop in oil sends Wall Street sliding

By Noel Randewich

DJ:  18,066.75  -258.32    NAS:  5,155.25  -56.63     S&P: 2,127.02  -32.02 9/13

Big drop Friday, big rally yesterday, big drop again today. We can’t blame the Fed anymore.  Even the statements of three more officials today reaffirming the unlikelihood of a September hike was not enough to stop the hemorrhaging from the news that an end to the global crude glut that has been dogging markets for the past couple of years was still nowhere in sight, sending oil crashing 3 percent and the Dow down 1.4 percent.  Now all hopes are tied to a good strong Q3, which is only two weeks away.  Volume was way above average at 8.2 billion.  

BUSINESS NEWS | Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:33pm EDT

Fed jitters and oil pull Wall Street lower; Apple rallies

By Noel Randewich

DJ:  18,034.77  -31.98     NAS: 5,173.77  +18.52      S&P: 2,125.77  -1.25   9/14

With the recent harsh sell off, the rollercoaster continued today, though not as severely, as the Dow first rose a hundred, then dropped 170 before settling in at a 32 point loss.  Today’s position was mostly just evaluating the last four trading days weighing both fears of a rate hike and energy issues as oil dropped another 2 percent as investors continue to digest yesterday’s glut stats that sent crude down 3 percent for a 2-day total of 5 percent.  Volume remained above recent averages at 7 billion.  

BUSINESS NEWS | Thu Sep 15, 2016 | 6:44pm EDT

Global stocks rise as U.S. data dims September rate hike chances

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | NEW YORK

DJ:  18,212.48  +177.71    NAS: 5,249.69  +75.92    S&P:  2,147.26  +21.49                9/15

Same old, same old, today another weak economic report, this time with August retail data coming in lower than expected, and the market once again rallies on the good news that this bad news likely means no rate hike next week.  Employment data was also on the downside.  All told it boosted the Dow 177 points.  Not bad for bad news.  Volume was in line with recent averages at 6.8 billion.  

BUSINESS NEWS | Fri Sep 16, 2016 | 4:38pm EDT

Wall St. falls; risk of Deutsche Bank fine hits banks

By Noel Randewich

DJ:  18,123.80  -88.68       NAS:  5,244.57  -5.12      S&P:  2,139.16  -8.10   9/16

So hanky panky at Deutsche Bank brought in a considerably larger than expected fine and sent shock waves through the financial sector bringing the Dow down 150 points before later recovering to an 89 point loss.  Residual nerves about the next rate hike remain in force even though the oddsmakers have now virtually ruled out any action at next week’s meeting.  The day’s good news is that the VIX fear guage declined 5.7 percent indicating increasing confidence.  Volume was way high at 9.3 billion but since this number includes the process known as triple witching, it can be discounted.  Monday’s volume will give a truer picture.