Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.19.18
Succinct Summations for the week
ending October 19th, 2018
Positives:
1. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 210k for the week, down 5k
from previous 215k.
2. Job openings rose to 7.136M in August, beating the expected 6.905M.
3. NAHB home builder index came in at 68 for October, a touch better than expected
4.Business inventories rose 0.5% m/o/m,
meeting expectations.
5. Industrial production rose 0.3% m/o/m, meeting expectations.
6. Same store sales rose 5.8% w/o/w, (but were down from previous rise of 6.5%).
7. Core retail sales in October (Ex -auto’s, gasoline and building materials) rose 0.5% m/o/m
2. Job openings rose to 7.136M in August, beating the expected 6.905M.
3. NAHB home builder index came in at 68 for October, a touch better than expected
4.
5. Industrial production rose 0.3% m/o/m, meeting expectations.
6. Same store sales rose 5.8% w/o/w, (but were down from previous rise of 6.5%).
7. Core retail sales in October (Ex -auto’s, gasoline and building materials) rose 0.5% m/o/m
Negatives:
1. Housing is
showing early signs of stress: Zillow noted “For the first time
in six years, the median rent nationwide is less than it was 12 months earlier.”
2. Existing home sales fell to an annualized rate 5.150M in September, missing expectations for the sixth straight month.
3. Housing starts came in at 1.21M for September, less than prior revised 1.27M.
4.Mortgage applications fell a seasonally
adjusted 6.0% w/o/w, following a previous decline of 1.0%.
5. Retail sales rose 0.1% m/o/m, missing the expected 0.6% rise.
6. Europe remains a mess: Italy and the EU are now officially in a standoff; UK retail sales in September were soft; For the 3 months ended August, the UK lost a net 5k jobs; German ZEW investor confidence number in their economy softened to -24.7.
7. China’s economic growth slowed to 6.5% growth in Q3, the lowest since Q1 2009 and down from 6.7% in Q2
2. Existing home sales fell to an annualized rate 5.150M in September, missing expectations for the sixth straight month.
3. Housing starts came in at 1.21M for September, less than prior revised 1.27M.
4.
5. Retail sales rose 0.1% m/o/m, missing the expected 0.6% rise.
6. Europe remains a mess: Italy and the EU are now officially in a standoff; UK retail sales in September were soft; For the 3 months ended August, the UK lost a net 5k jobs; German ZEW investor confidence number in their economy softened to -24.7.
7. China’s economic growth slowed to 6.5% growth in Q3, the lowest since Q1 2009 and down from 6.7% in Q2
Sun 10-21-18 Wealthtrack: INTEREST RATES MATTER - A message from Consuelo - October 18, 2018
October 18, 2018
Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
How
much do interest rates matter? After a decade of historic lows, in certain
years 5000 year lows in interest rates, we are about to find out. They are
rising.
A recent front page story in The New York Times warned that within a decade interest payments on U.S. debt may exceed the country’s entire military budget.
The Times reported that the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the cost of interest is on track to hit $390 billion next year, nearly 50% more than in 2017.
After a decade of enticingly low interest rates the world is once again awash in debt, governments, businesses, and in some cases individuals, have loaded up. That load is becoming more burdensome.
35 years ago financial journalist James Grant left Barron’swhere he had originated the “Current Yield” column to start his own publication called Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. At the time, 30 year Treasuries yielded 12% and 3 month T-bills 9%.
Its stated editorial mission was to “…keep its readers abreast of the things that cause rates to rise and fall and of the forces that tilt the world toward inflation or deflation.”
It went on to say “…it intends to keep watch over the bond market, of course, but also over gold, preferred stock, bank shares, foreign exchange, commodities and other interest-sensitive investments.” Grant’s has done all that and more, and in the process has become a widely read and influential journal for professional investors.
Grant himself has written several financial histories including The Forgotten Depression, 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself,which won the Hayek Prize, and several biographies including John Adams:Party Of One.
On this week’s WEALTHTRACK our conversation begins with why interest rates still matter after nearly a decade of central bank induced distortion.
As always, if you miss the show on Public Television, you can watch it on our website. You’ll also find an EXTRA web exclusive interview with Grant online.
Plus a reminder that if you would like to take WEALTHTRACKwith you on your commute or travels, you can now find the WEALTHTRACK podcast on TuneIn, Stitcher, and SoundCloud, as well as iTunes. Find out more on the WEALTHTRACK Podcast page.
Thank you for watching. Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and productive one.
Best regards,
Consuelo
A recent front page story in The New York Times warned that within a decade interest payments on U.S. debt may exceed the country’s entire military budget.
The Times reported that the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the cost of interest is on track to hit $390 billion next year, nearly 50% more than in 2017.
After a decade of enticingly low interest rates the world is once again awash in debt, governments, businesses, and in some cases individuals, have loaded up. That load is becoming more burdensome.
35 years ago financial journalist James Grant left Barron’swhere he had originated the “Current Yield” column to start his own publication called Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. At the time, 30 year Treasuries yielded 12% and 3 month T-bills 9%.
Its stated editorial mission was to “…keep its readers abreast of the things that cause rates to rise and fall and of the forces that tilt the world toward inflation or deflation.”
It went on to say “…it intends to keep watch over the bond market, of course, but also over gold, preferred stock, bank shares, foreign exchange, commodities and other interest-sensitive investments.” Grant’s has done all that and more, and in the process has become a widely read and influential journal for professional investors.
Grant himself has written several financial histories including The Forgotten Depression, 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself,which won the Hayek Prize, and several biographies including John Adams:Party Of One.
On this week’s WEALTHTRACK our conversation begins with why interest rates still matter after nearly a decade of central bank induced distortion.
As always, if you miss the show on Public Television, you can watch it on our website. You’ll also find an EXTRA web exclusive interview with Grant online.
Plus a reminder that if you would like to take WEALTHTRACKwith you on your commute or travels, you can now find the WEALTHTRACK podcast on TuneIn, Stitcher, and SoundCloud, as well as iTunes. Find out more on the WEALTHTRACK Podcast page.
Thank you for watching. Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and productive one.
Best regards,
Consuelo
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