Succinct Summations for the week ending October 26th, 2018 (plus market timing)

Below please find the usual weekly summation.  On the plus side, GDP for Q3 came in higher than expected and durable goods orders actually increased instead of the expected decrease.  The negatives include new home sales and inventories coming in under expectations. The bonus this Sunday evening is another instructive graphic which, in one simple eye-shot, illustrates a concept that most of us are already well familiar with -- that overall most of those who try to time the market do not do nearly as well as those who don't.  The more timing that goes on, the more the best market days are missed.  Hope everyone had a great if wet and cold weekend. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events

October 26, 2018 6:00pm by Barry Ritholtz

Succinct Summations for the week ending October 26th, 2018

Positives:

1. GDP came in at 3.5% for Q3, 2 tenths higher than expected 3.3%.
2. Durable goods orders rose 0.8% m/o/m, beating the expected 1.5% decrease.
3. Pending home sales rose 0.5% in September, meeting high end of expectations.
4. FHFA house price index rose 0.3% m/o/m, meeting expectations.
5. Home mortgage applications rose 2.0% w/o/w, up from previous 6.0% decrease.
6. PMI composite is up to 54.8 in the current month, greater than expected 54.1.

Negatives:

1. New home sales came in at 553k for September, less than expected 625k.
2. Same store sales rose 5.5% w/o/w, slowing by 0.3% from previous week.
3. Retail inventories rose 0.1% m/o/m, down from prior revised 0.6% rise.
4. Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% m/o/m, down from prior revised 0.9% rise.
5. International trade in goods shows a deficit of $76B for September, deeper than expectations.
6. Chicago fed national activity index came in at 0.17 for September, down from prior revised 0.27.