Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 1.25.19 (plus GDP 2008-19)

Below is the weekly summation, the big positive being the end of the government shutdown - for 3 weeks anyway, the big negative being all the grounded flights due to lack of air traffic controllers on account of the government shutdown.  The bonus this Sunday is a graphic showing the 11 year history of U.S. GDP from the beginning of the Great Recession to present.  The lingering question is:  does this chart suggest we're about to have another crash?  (I would suggest the chart says not.  Look at all the times since 2009 that GDP has been lower than it is now, and there's been no crash.)  We're about to enter a week of record-breaking cold, so bundle up and stay warm.  Better yet, don't bundle up and just stay inside!  Hope you all had a great weekend.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 1.25.19

January 25, 2019 5:00pm by Barry Ritholtz

Succinct Summations for the week ending January 25th, 2019

Positives:

1. Government shutdown resolved! Well, for 3 weeks.
2. Jobless claims fell 13k w/o/w from 212k to 199k.
3. Same store sales rose 7.0% w/o/w, up from previous 6.7% increase.
4. FHFA house price index rose 0.4%, higher than expected 0.3% increase.
5. PMI composite rose to 54.5, greater than previous 54.2.

Negatives:

1. Shutdown grounds some flights at LaGuardia and other airports do not have enough Air Traffic Controllers;
2. Leading economic indicators fell 0.1% m/o/m, down from previous 0.2% rise.
3. Existing home sales fell 6.4% m/o/m, down from previous 2.1% increase.
4. Mortgage applications fell a seasonally adjusted 2.0% w/o/w, down from previous 9.0% increase.
5. Richmond fed manufacturing index came in at -2, meeting expectations.  

Sun 1-27-19 BigPic: 10 Sunday Morning Reads - The Big Picture