Yesterday, there was all kinds of confidence that there would be a 50-basis-point rate cut this month.  Today the Wall Street Journal reported that they had info that the Fed would be issuing just a ¼ point cut this time around and that sent the markets tumbling again after initially gaining over a hundred points.  Yesterday the odds-makers put a ½ point cut at 71%, today only 22%.  The good news is that, despite this, the Fed is still sending clear signals that there will probably be more rate cuts later.  The better news is that there were a lot of good Q2 reports today.  The best news is that the Q2 earnings forecast today leaped to a full 1 percent, quite a jump from yesterday at 0.6 and last week at a minus 0.4 percent.  Probably until the actual Fed meeting, volume remains below average at just under 6.3 billion. 

fri  JULY 19, 2019 /5:35  pm 

Wall Street falls as Fed signals smaller rate cut

Evan Sully, April Joyner

DJ: 27,154.20  -68.77       NAS:  8,146.49  -60.75         S&P:  2,976.61  -18.50      7/19

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes fell on Friday following a report that the Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates by only a quarter-percentage point at the end of the month.  The benchmark S&P 500 erased earlier marginal gains after a Wall Street Journal report on the Fed’s plans. According to the report, while the U.S. central bank is not prepared to make a bigger 50-basis-point cut, it may make further rate cuts in the future given concerns about a decline in global economic growth and uncertainty about trade.

On Thursday, stocks had risen as comments from New York Fed President John Williams increased hopes of a bigger rate cut. Later that day, however, a New York Fed representative said Williams’ comments were not intended to telegraph any hints about upcoming Fed policy actions.  “It appears that the Fed has communicated its message,” said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama. “They’re basically trying to clarify their policy.”

Futures market odds of a 50-basis-point cut at the Fed’s July meeting soared to 71% late Thursday immediately after Williams’ speech but fell to 22.5% on Friday, according to CME Group’s Fedwatch tool.  The expiration of options on Friday likely amplified the market reaction to the report, said Dennis Dick, head of markets structure at Bright Trading LLC in Las Vegas.  “It’s been one of those days where you get a lot of chop,” he said. “This is often on the third Friday of the month. The traders are expecting this.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell 68.77 points, or 0.25%, to 27,154.2, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 18.5 points, or 0.62%, to 2,976.61 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXICdropped 60.75 points, or 0.74%, to 8,146.49.  For the week, the Dow lost 0.64%, the S&P fell 1.23% and the Nasdaq shed 1.19%. 

Earlier on Friday, U.S. stocks had edged higher as strong results from Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) momentarily buoyed technology stocks. Microsoft shares ended marginally higher, up 0.1%, but the S&P 500 technology index .SPLRCT fell 0.55%. 

Second-quarter profits at S&P 500 companies are now estimated to rise 1%, according to Refinitiv IBES data, in a reversal from earlier expectations of a small drop.

Boeing Co (BA.N) shares gained 4.5%, despite the planemaker’s disclosure that it would take a $4.9 billion after-tax hit from the grounding of its 737 MAX, indicating that investors had expected more severe repercussions.  Kansas City Southern (KSU.N) shares rose 4.6% after the railroad operator posted a better-than-expected quarterly profit. Its shares helped the Dow Jones Transport index .DJT gain 0.6%.  Shares of American Express Co (AXP.N) slipped 2.8% after the credit card issuer warned of higher operating costs this year as it spends heavily on rewards programs to attract customers. 

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.29-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.51-to-1 ratio favored decliners.  The S&P 500 posted 45 new 52-week highs and five new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 75 new highs and 84 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 6.25 billion shares, compared to the 6.59 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.