Still riding the high from the signing of Phase I and adding to that a great Q4 report from Morgan Stanley and continuing data that the consumer that has been the mainstay of the economy remains strong as demonstrated by a strong retail sales report, the Dow surged right out the gate and stayed that way all day to close up 267 points, achieving still another new record as did also the Nasdaq and S&P.  The latter made history too by breaking 3,300 for the first time.  Whereas the forecast for Q4 has always been for a 0.6% decline in earnings, in just this short time into reporting the expectations are already being revised to a minus 0.4 percent.  Very likely this will be a positive number in a very short time, especially in light of the fact that full year 2020 earnings are expected to be a +9.6 percent.  At 6.9 billion, volume was in line with the 4-week average. 

thu  JANUARY 16, 2020 / 6:07 pm 

S&P 500 blasts through 3,300 as tech stocks surge

Noel Randewich

DJ:  29,030.22  +90.55        NAS:  9,258.70  +7.37         S&P:  3,289.29  +6.14       1/15

DJ:  29,297.64  +267.42      NAS:  9,357.13  +98.43       S&P:  3,316.81  +27.52     1/16

(Reuters) - The S&P 500 rallied through the 3,300 mark for the first time on Thursday and the other main U.S. indexes also surged to record highs, fueled by tech stocks, solid retail sales data and upbeat quarterly earnings from Morgan Stanley.  Morgan Stanley (MS.N) jumped 6.6% to lead the S&P 500 after it beat quarterly profit estimates and raised its performance goals, closing out several big U.S. lenders’ earnings on a strong note.

Sentiment was further lifted by data that showed U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in December, in line with economists’ estimates.  The retail numbers indicated the U.S. economy maintained a moderate growth pace at the end of 2019 and eased concerns about the sector’s health following disappointing holiday sales reports from Target Corp (TGT.N) and J.C. Penney Co Inc (JCP.N).  “The consumer needs to be strong and evidence of that is retail sales, which came in pretty well after some slowing over the last several months,” said Tom Martin, portfolio manager at Globalt in Atlanta.

Technology stocks, which have played an outsized part in the recent rally, made fresh gains. The S&P information technology index .SPLRCT added 1.4% to a record high, leading gains among the main sectors. Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) rose 1.8% and chipmakers also surged after a strong forecast from top contract chip manufacturer TSMC (2330.TW) (TSM.N).

The new highs on Wall Street come after Washington and Beijing on Wednesday signed a deal pausing an 18-month long tariff war that had bruised financial markets and crimped global growth.  China is expected to boost purchases of U.S. goods and services in exchange for the rolling back of some tariffs as part of the deal, but several thorny issues remain unresolved.

Analysts expect profits at S&P 500 companies to have dropped 0.4% in the fourth quarter, but full-year 2020 earnings are estimated to grow 9.6%, according to Refinitiv IBES data. Full-year earnings estimates typically decline as the year advances. 

The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks jumped 1.36%, its strongest session so far in 2020.   “Small caps this week are starting to act better and gain interest from investors,” said Willie Delwiche, an investment strategist at Baird. “Broad participation in the market is giving people a sense of ease right now that it’s not just a handful of companies moving higher.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI jumped 0.92% to end at 29,297.64 points, while the S&P 500 .SPX gained 0.84% to 3,316.89.  The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 1.06% to 9,357.13, bringing its gain in 2020 to 4.29%. 

Among other stocks, Signet Jewelers Ltd (SIG.N) soared 40% after raising its 2020 adjusted earnings estimate.  Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK.N) tumbled 7.8% to the bottom of the S&P 500 after the custodian bank missed profit estimates. 

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.57-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.78-to-1 ratio favored advancers.  The S&P 500 posted 100 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 200 new highs and seven new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 6.9 billion shares, compared with an average of 7.0 billion shares over the last 20 trading days.