Succinct Summations for 1.17.20 (plus Here are my major gaffes of 2019)

Below is the weekly summation, the big positive being that we have had yet another week where there have been new all time highs, the big negative being the possibility - or shall we even say likelihood - of foreign interference in the 2020 election. For your amusement this Sunday night, Barry Ritholtz has provided a confessional list of the major things he got wrong in 2019, chief among them being his prediction that trading commissions were already low enough and would not go lower, and that there would be no Brexit.  For those of you who work for the government or in banking, enjoy your holiday tomorrow. 



Succinct Summations for 1.17.20

January 17, 2020 5:00pm by Barry Ritholtz

Succinct Summations for the week ending January 17th, 2020

Positives:

1. New all time highs are always bullish!
2. Home mortgage apps rose 16.0%, refinance apps rose 43% w/o/w, above the previous increase of 5.0%.
3. Home w/o/w, above the previous decrease of 8.0%.
4. Housing starts came in at 1.608M for December, above the previous 1.375M.
5. Retail sales rose 0.3% m/o/m, above the expected increase of 0.2%.
6. Import prices rose 0.3% m/o/m, meeting expectations.

Negatives:

1. 2020 Elections will be under assault from foreign adversaries, this administration is wholly incapable or unwilling to do anything about it.
2. Same store sales rose 5.0% w/o/w, decelerating from the previous increase of 6.0%.
3. Export prices fell 0.2% m/o/m, below expectations.
4. Job openings came in at 6.800M in November, below expected 7.100M.
5. CPI rose 0.2% m/o/m, below the expected increase of 0.3%.
6. Industrial production fell 0.3% m/o/m, well below previous increase of 0.8%.

BBRG: Brexit, Facebook, Endowments and Other Errors

January 19, 2020 11:00am by Barry Ritholtz

Brexit, Facebook, Endowments and Other Errors
Acknowledging mistakes increases the odds of avoiding them in the future.
Bloomberg, January 19, 2020

 It is very helpful to admit that on a regular basis. I try to say those words at least once year, whether I have been wrong about anything or (LOL) not.  

The inspiration for this came more than a decade ago, courtesy of Ray Dalio’s groundbreaking work on responsibility and ownership of your words and deeds. It may sound a bit hard to swallow, but for many decades, people in finance pretended to be infallible. Credit Dalio for bringing the art of learning from errors into the light on Wall Street.  

So each year, I make a list of what I got wrong then share it publicly. This act of contrition – admitting the errors of my ways in the light of day – allows me to own my mistakes, recognize our fallibility, and learn from the experience. I have been doing this for about a decade. It is incredibly helpful to my “process” and hopefully, you may find some usefulness in it as well.  

Here are my major gaffes of 2019:

1. Trading commissions Are Low Enough

2. University endowments underperformance

3. Brexit

4. Fiduciary rule

5. Facebook didn’t flip the 2016 election

See the complete column here