Stats, Finance, and COVID-19

Below is a rather fascinating animation (do use the reset button to see it) showing how in the past few days COVID-19 has become the #1 daily cause of death in the U.S.  We might also note from the news that, as of today, the U.S. has more infections and more deaths from COVID-19 than any other country in the world. But we from the world of finance and investments are all trained in the science of stats and know that numbers can be deceiving.  And I believe in this case they are.

First, it's apples and oranges.  You can't say that a country of 330 million has the highest case and death rate when comparing to other countries with a fraction of our population.  We really need to look at per capita rates and, though no one has done so, my bet is that it would show that most other countries have much higher case and death rates.  What we should be asking is:  how is it that China with 5 times the population in roughly the same geographical space, has such low numbers?  How is it that they're so much better at this -- or is it a case that we just can't trust their numbers?  It also may be instructive to note that COVID-19, which is a temporary crisis with just days left to peak, has just now barely overtaken heart disease and cancer, both of which have always been with us.  Some basic technical analysis tells the real story.  My thoughts for today.  Happy Easter everyone!


4-8-20 Average Daily Cause of Death in USA - The Big Picture

Average Daily Cause of Death in USA

April 10, 2020 1:00pm by Barry Ritholtz

Covid-19 vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death

A Flourish data visualisation

Source: Flourish, hat tip Bill Sweet

This is a mind-blowing animation, showing that as of April 8th, the Covid 19 virus has risen to be the single leading daily cause of death in America (note NOT year to date or accumulated, but daily).

Let that sink in for a moment.