Here's something I knew few of you could resist -- a (gasp!) optimistic report on our economic outlook. That's why we watch PBS! Top economist Nancy Lazar talks about why we are going to be back to pre-pandemic levels in record time. I'll just say that even her so-called "optimistic" prediction of a full recovery in just four years seems a bit long in the tooth.
Since this recession has been caused entirely by forces of nature rather than of the markets, my opinion is that when the natural source is arrested, the economy will follow suit. After all, contrary to a real recession where companies and jobs go away due to runaway and mostly speculative growth, in this case the need for these companies and jobs has never gone away and as soon as it's safe to operate again (vaccine time!), they'll come back. It's probably the first time this has been true. But it's also the first time in history that a recession has been caused by forces of nature rather than of people. Enjoy the rest of this Indian summer weekend.
10-8-20 POWERFUL ECONOMIC COMEBACK - A message from Consuelo - October 8, 2020
|
|
Sponsored by:
October 8, 2020
Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
How surprised have you been by the market’s supercharged recovery from the March lows and the economy’s rebound from the COVID trough? By any measure the snap back has been extraordinary. The shortest bear market in U.S. history, a mere 33 weeks from late February to late March, and a much faster recovery than expected.
According to a recent Federal Reserve forecast the unemployment rate which peaked at 14.7% in April, will fall to 7.6% in the fourth quarter of this year, 5.5% by the end of 2021, 4.6% by 2022 and 4% by the end of 2023.
As this week’s guest, Nancy Lazar told clients recently: “In the last expansion it took almost 9 years (until 2018) for unemployment to fall to 4.0%. Today the Fed expects (more likely wishes) to see 4.0% just 4 years into this expansion. And since this cycle’s Drivers are leveraged to the Fed’s main policy tool - interest rates - the Fed’s in a good position to make it happen.”
Nancy Lazar is Partner and Chief Economist of Cornerstone Macro a leading independent macro research and policy firm she co-founded in 2013. Lazar has been an Institutional Investor ranked economist for the past 17 years and has been ranked among the top two for the last nine years.
We will discuss why she is optimistic about the economy’s progress based on some unappreciated and under reported trends she and her team have been tracking both pre-pandemic and now. Be prepared for a fascinating and different analysis of the U.S. economy and why its recovery powers are so strong.
Also, in this week’s exclusive EXTRA feature Lazar will share the changes she is making in her life because of the pandemic.
If you miss the show on public television, you can watch it on our website over the weekend. You can also find the WEALTHTRACK podcast on Stitcher and SoundCloud as well as iTunes and Spotify.
Thank you so much for sharing your time with us. Have a lovely weekend and make the week ahead a healthy, profitable and productive one.
Best regards,
Consuelo |
|
|
|
|
No comments:
Post a Comment