Saturday, November 7, 2020

Powerful Macro Forces

This week's edition of the PBS program Wealth Track is a pretty good summary of how this week's election has impacted and is expected to continue to impact the markets.  


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November 5, 2020 

Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,

What a week! The widely predicted blue wave of Democrats sweeping into the White House, taking over the Senate majority and increasing their dominance in Congress has failed to materialize. As of this moment, on Thursday evening, we don’t know who our next President will be, although Vice President Biden is very close with an Electoral College tally of 264 of the 270 votes needed to win. Ballots in some key states are still being counted and contested. It looks like Republicans could hold onto a narrow majority in the Senate and have gained some seats in the House. 

As far as the stock market is concerned, a divided government is a plus because not a lot will change in the way of tax policy and regulations. Both the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 just experienced four consecutive sessions with gains of 1% or more. According to The Wall Street Journal that is the “longest such streak for both indexes since October 1982.”  

The market’s advance puts the Dow about 4% away from its February high and the S&P and the Nasdaq Composite less than 2% away from their September record peaks.

Investor optimism is not shared by Federal Reserve officials who expressed ongoing concern about the economy and the recent uptick in COVID-19 cases in today’s Federal Open Market Committee policy announcement

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year... 

The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.

As a result, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain its target range for its benchmark federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and to “increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to … help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.”

Ongoing Fed stimulus is another reason Wall Street is bullish. 

At WEALTHTRACK we realize that we do not invest in a vacuum. What is happening in the world around us affects the markets and companies we invest in, which is why macro matters.

This week, in part 2 of our interview with financial thought leader, Jason Trennert we are going to identify some of the biggest trends that have been forming around us and are gaining momentum. 

With the emergence of the global pandemic, Trennert and his team at Strategas are reassessing some of the changes already underway and how the pandemic and most important, the policy reaction to it have altered the outlook. We’ll also discuss which investment sectors stand to benefit the most. 

Trennert is Co-Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer of Strategas, as well as its Chief Investment Strategist.  Strategas has been voted a top macro research provider by Institutional Investor for four years in a row. 

In this week’s EXTRA feature, Trennert will tell us about the changes he has made in his personal portfolio because of the pandemic.   

If you miss the show on public television, you can watch it on our website over the weekend.  You can also find the WEALTHTRACK podcast on Stitcher and SoundCloud as well as iTunes and Spotify.

Thank you for watching, have a lovely weekend and make the week ahead a healthy, profitable and productive one! 

Best regards,

Consuelo

P.S. Next Wednesday, November 11th is Veterans Day. Please take a moment to honor those whose military service enables us to participate in the free and peaceful elections we just witnessed.   

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