Below is the end-of-week weekly summation, the main positives being vaccine progress and an all but exhausted panoply of election litigation options. The main negatives remain the spiraling infection and death rates combined with Trump's unprecedented efforts to overturn the vote. The bonus this Sunday night is a very instructive graphic posted today on The Big Picture blog showing the historical relationship between intrayear drawdowns and yearly returns. Even though the two usually correlate (that is big drawdowns translate to big negative returns), this chart shows the years since 1929 when they did not correlate. And 2020 is at the top of the list. It's the biggest stock market reversal in history. And welcome to winter as we just had our first measurable snow for the year. It's still too early to put on the snow tires though.
Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.20.20
Succinct Summations for the week ending November 20th, 2020
Positives:
1. Pfizer and Moderna vaccine progress teases a return to post-pandemic normal (mid-2021?).
2. Recounts and litigation options all but exhausted, this period of election uncertainty is close to its end.
3. Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.7% 2nd month running.
4. Home mortgage apps rose 4.0% w/o/w.
5. Housing starts rose to an annual rate of 1.530M in October.
6. Existing home sales rose to an annual rate of 6.850M.
7. Industrial production rose 1.1% m/o/m.
Negatives:
1. Failing to concede his loss, the President’s unprecedented attempt to overturn election results is both globally embarrassing and nationally dangerous, a threat to the peaceful transfer of power.
2. Record high covid infections and hospitalizations will lead to higher death counts in 10 days;
3. E-Commerce retail sales fell 1.0% q/o/q.
4. Retail sales rose 0.3% m/o/m.
5. Jobless claims rose 31k w/o/w from 711k to 742k.
The Biggest Stock Market Reversal In History
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