Nasdaq ends down as investors eye Black Friday sales, China infections

Black Friday doesn’t count.  Such was the sentiment as summarized by today’s expert, “It’s such a low volume trading day as most people are at home that I never count Friday after Thanksgiving.”  As it was, there was a shot straight up all day on the Dow and an equally dramatic shot straight down on the Nasdaq, with the S&P modestly in the black for most of the day until diving in the final minutes to break-even. At the time of market close it was still too early to gauge the impact of Black Friday sales but tonight’s evening news reported that Black Friday came very close to the optimistic estimates. 

It was enough of a boost to consumer confidence and spending that, despite the more gloomy recent predictions from Fed officials of continuing high rate hikes, the consensus today remains a very optimistic 71% that the December hike will be just ½ point.  Trading closed at 1 p.m. and the corresponding volume was negligible at just 4.5 billion which is why the sentiment is that Black Friday doesn’t count.  With more data on retail sales next week, there should be another rally.  The S&P so far is up a big 15% from the early October low and the gurus are expecting another 15% post mid-election boost in the next month or two. 

Fri  November 25, 20225:42 PM

Nasdaq ends down as investors eye Black Friday sales, China infections

By Carolina Mandl and Ankika Biswas

DJ: 34,194.06  +95.96         NAS: 11,285.32  +110.91       S&P: 4,027.26  +23.68     11/23

DJ: 34,347.03  +152.97       NAS: 11,226.36  -58.96          S&P: 4,026.12  -1.14        11/25

Nov 25 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq closed lower on Friday with pressure from Apple Inc (AAPL.O) in a subdued holiday-shortened trading session for Wall Street, as investors watched Black Friday sales and COVID-19 cases in China.  Apple fell 2.0% on news of reduced iPhone shipments from a Foxconn plant in China in November as production was hit by COVID-related worker unrest.  The session focused on retailers as Black Friday sales kicked off against the backdrop of stubbornly high inflation and cooling economic growth.  Shoppers were expected to turn out in record numbers to shop for Black Friday deals, but with inclement weather, crowds outside stores were thin on the traditionally busiest shopping day of the year.  U.S. retail stocks have become a barometer of consumer confidence as inflation bites. So far this year, the S&P 500 retail index (.SPXRT) is down a little over 30%, while the S&P 500 (.SPX) has fallen 15%.

Shares of retailers Target Corp (TGT.N), Macy's Inc (M.N) and Best Buy Co Inc (BBY.N) were mixed, while the S&P consumer discretionary index (.SPLRCD) rose slightly.  "It's such a low volume trading day as most people are at home that I never count Friday after Thanksgiving," said Ed Cofrancesco, chief executive officer of International Assets Advisory, in Orlando, Florida.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 4.54 billion shares, compared with the 11.25 billion full-session average over the last 20 trading days.

Starting next week, investors will focus on retail sales, China's newest COVID outbreak and the Federal Reserve's next steps, Cofrancesco said.  Wall street's main indexes have rallied strongly from their early October lows, with the S&P 500 up more than 15% on a boost from a better-than-expected earnings season and more recently on hopes of less aggressive interest rates hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Analysts now see a 71.1% chance that the Fed will increase its key benchmark rate by 50 basis points in December, with rates peaking in June 2023.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 152.97 points, or 0.45%, to 34,347.03; the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 1.14 points, or 0.03%, at 4,026.12; and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 58.96 points, or 0.52%, to 11,226.36.  All three indexes ended the Thanksgiving week with gains, led by the Dow, which rose 1.78%.

Activision Blizzard Inc (ATVI.O) plunged 4.07% on a media report that the U.S. Federal Trade Commission was likely to file an antitrust lawsuit to block Microsoft Corp's (MSFT.O) $69 billion takeover bid for the video game publisher.  U.S. stock markets closed at 1 p.m. ET, after Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.81-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.35-to-1 ratio favored advancers.  The S&P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 89 new highs and 83 new lows.