Wall St falls as labor data spurs rate hike jitters before debt ceiling vote

Today’s Labor Department reports showing a continuing and unexpectedly strong job market spurred nerves again about more rate hikes to continue cooling inflation, cranking the odds up to 70% for a June hike and dropping the market down, the Dow some 300 points by 10 a.m.  The debt ceiling bill, though widely expected to pass, still sends some jitters as it is also expected to pass narrowly, the House vote coming Wednesday night, the Senate could be as late as June 4^th vs the June 5^th deadline. 

Then later today, Fed governors sent a rather firm message that a June rate pause is definitely in the running which sent the odds spiraling down to 32% and the market rallying to recover about half of the losses.  The FDIC reported that total U.S. bank deposits went down a record 2.5% in Q1 which sent the banking index down 2%.  (What?  How can this be? Weren’t the deposits simply withdrawn from the weak banks and redeposited in the strong banks?  Where did these deposits go? The bond market?)  Volume was way above average at nearly 13.9 billion. 

Wall St falls as labor data spurs rate hike jitters before debt ceiling vote

By Herbert Lash and Shreyashi Sanyal

May 31, 2023  4:35 PM

DJ: 33,042.78  -50.56         NAS: 13,017.43  +41.74         S&P: 4,205.52  +0.07       5/30

DJ: 32,908.27  -134.51       NAS: 12,935.28  -82.14          S&P: 4,179.83  -25.69      5/31

May 31 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed down on Wednesday as a deal to raise the federal debt ceiling headed for a crucial vote in Congress, while unexpectedly strong labor market data rattled investors who fear the Federal Reserve might hike interest rates again in June.  The House of Representatives is expected to vote in the evening on a bill to lift the $31.4 trillion debt limit, a critical step to avoid a destabilizing default that could come early next week without congressional approval.  House passage would send the bill to the Senate, where debate could stretch to the weekend, just before the June 5 date when the government could start to run out of money.  But most analysts foresee the bill's approval and U.S. President Joe Biden said on Wednesday he expected the debt ceiling bill on his desk by next Monday.

"The bond market liked that there was some fiscal discipline and the equity market liked that it's not going to hurt growth," said Brad Conger, deputy chief investment officer at Hirtle Callaghan & Co in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.  "I don't think we could have asked for a better outcome."  However, equity valuations are stretched considering interest rates are high, the economy is slowing and inflation needs to decline further, Conger said.  "Quite frankly, if we're really slowing down, the market is not offering a free lunch," he said. "It's going to be a struggle if inflation is not perceived to be ebbing, which is where we are."

The Labor Department reported that U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in April, reflecting persistent labor market strength that suggests pressure on wages and inflation.  Futures traders raised to 70% the probability of a 25 basis points hike at the Fed's June 13-14 policy meeting. But that likelihood fell to about 32% after comments by Fed officials who are leaning to what some call a "hawkish pause."  Fed Governor and vice chair nominee Philip Jefferson said skipping a rate hike in two weeks would provide policymakers time to see more data before making a decision. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker also said on Wednesday that for now he is inclined to support a "skip" in rate hikes.  "The recent economic data has not really favored a pause in rate hikes," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. "But we've had a number of Fed governors coming out this afternoon and saying a pause is either likely or certainly possible."  The Labor Department's closely watched May unemployment report, due on Friday, could decide whether a rate hike occurs.  The major indices pared some losses after the comments by Fed officials.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 134.51 points, or 0.41%, to 32,908.27; the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 25.69 points, or 0.61%, at 4,179.83; and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 82.14 points, or 0.63%, to 12,935.29.  For the month, the S&P 500 rose 0.26%, the Dow lost 0.3.48% and the Nasdaq gained 5.80%.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.87 billion shares, compared with the 10.58 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Technology-led gains have put the Nasdaq on track for its best performance in May since 2020.  The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said U.S. banks' total deposits declined by a record 2.5% in the first quarter after two large bank failures.  The S&P 500 financial sector index (.SPSY) fell 1.1%, with banks (.SPXBK) taking the brunt with a 2.0% slide.

Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP.N) plunged 35.0%, falling the most on the S&P 500, after the auto parts retailer cut its full-year forecasts.  Shares of other autoparts makers including Genuine Parts Co (GPC.N), Autozone (AZO.N) and O'Reily Automotive (ORLY.O) fell 5.6%, 2.8% and 2.7%, respectfully.  Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE.N) slipped 7.1% after missing Wall Street estimates for second-quarter revenue.  Nvidia Corp's (NVDA.O) shares fell 5.7% a day after hitting a record high that briefly boosted its market value above $1 trillion on Tuesday, fueled by bets on the AI boom.  Intel Corp (INTC.O) was the biggest gainer on the S&P 500, jumping 4.8% as the chipmaker said it was on track to hit the upper end of its second-quarter revenue forecast.  Intel has risen 14.7% in its biggest three-day rally since March 2009.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.39-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.37-to-1 ratio favored decliners.  The S&P 500 posted four new 52-week highs and 23 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 36 new highs and 182 new lows.