U.S. stocks close lower as investors take cover ahead of Fed decision

It was a down day all around but it was an especially down day for all the indexes until about 1 pm with the Dow plunging more than 300 points by that hour before all three rebounded to regain most of the losses by close. The sentiment is “risk-off” hedging bets against a big unpleasant surprise from tomorrow’s Fed. Whereas there are 99% odds of a continued pause on Wednesday and an increasing 70.9% odds of another pause in November, the real hesitation comes from Wednesday’s publication of the Fed’s Summary Economic Projections which will give the real story on inflation and whether the Fed will be planning rate cuts in 2024. If the pauses continue longer so rates remain higher than desired, that would be considered a hawkish position, not what the market wants. A plunge in housing starts added to the uncertainty. Volume remains below average at 9.6 billion. 

U.S. stocks close lower as investors take cover ahead of Fed decision

By Stephen Culp

Tue September 19, 2023  5:44 PM

DJ: 34,624.30  +6.06          NAS: 13,710.24  +1.90        S&P: 4,453.53  +3.21       9/18

DJ: 34,517.73  -106.57       NAS: 13,678.19  -32.05       S&P: 4,443.95  -9.58        9/19

NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday, with risk-off sentiment weighing as the U.S. Federal Reserve convened for its much-anticipated two-day monetary policy meeting.  All three indexes ended the session lower in a broad sell-off ahead of the Fed's interest rate announcement on Wednesday, which is expected to culminate in a decision to leave key interest rates unchanged.

"It’s a big set up coming into tomorrow and markets are clearly focused on any change in communication from the Federal Reserve," said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Helena Montana, who expects "intense focus on the Fed’s perspective on inflation in the post-meeting press conference."  "Broad inflation readings have shown marked progress over the last year," Northey added. "But the last mile of inflation is likely going to be more challenging, bringing it back toward the Federal Reserve's target of 2%."  The Fed is also due to release its Summary Economic Projections, including its dot plot, which should provide a glimpse into the Federal Open Markets Committee's forecast trajectory of interest rates, inflation and economic growth.

"What’s being priced into the market is a pause but increased risk that rates will stay higher for longer," said Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management in Philadelphia. "If (the Fed) announced that they are removing rate cuts in 2024 by raising the dot plot, it would generally be seen as a very hawkish pause."  Financial markets have priced in an all-but-certain 99% probability that the central bank will leave its key Fed funds target rate at 5.25%-5.00% on Wednesday, and a growing 70.9% likelihood of standing pat at its next meeting in November, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

On the economic front, a jump in Canada's annual inflation rate due to rising gasoline prices, and a bigger-than-expected plunge in U.S. housing starts helped feed investor uncertainty.  The languid IPO market continues to show signs of life, with grocery delivery app Instacart's parent Maplebear Inc (CART.O) making its Nasdaq debut, days after chipmaker Arm Holdings' stellar entry to the public marketplace last week. Maplebear shares jumped 12.3%, while Arm Holdings lost 4.9%. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 106.57 points, or 0.31%, to 34,517.73, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 9.58 points, or 0.22%, to 4,443.95 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 32.05 points, or 0.23%, to 13,678.19.  Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, nine ended the session red, with energy (.SPNY) and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) suffering the largest percentage declines. 

Walt Disney (DIS.N) slid after the company announced it would nearly double its capital expenditure for its parks business over the next 10 years.  Starbucks (SBUX.O) lost ground following TD Cowen's decision to downgrade the coffee chain's shares to "underperform."  Automakers General Motors (GM.N) and Ford Motor Co (F.N) advanced as the United Auto Workers union planned to announce more strikes on Friday if no serious progress is made in ongoing talks with automakers. 

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.67-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.47-to-1 ratio favored decliners.  The S&P 500 posted seven new 52-week highs and nine new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 33 new highs and 257 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.60 billion shares, compared with the 10.05 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.