Saturday, September 2, 2023

Will the Stock Market Crash in 2023? 7 Risk Factors

Per Friday's edition of U.S. News Invested, here is what 50 leading economists say are the major risk factors for going into recession later this year. I don't really agree with all of them but I submit them anyway for your consideration. But aren't the major pre-indicators of recession when consumer spending falls (which it hasn't) and unemployment rises (which it has, but in this case it's good news because the labor market has been much too hot for a long time now.)  Plus aren't most economists now predicting a soft landing? But as I said, for your consideration ... 


SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

U.S. News & World Report

Invested

Advice, rankings and stock market news for investors.

Happy Friday, investors! Stocks cling to the baseline as the Fed's favored inflation measure rises for July and uncertainty reigns.

Highlights of today's newsletter include our market insights plus these new articles:

Will the Stock Market Crash in 2023? 7 Risk Factors
6 Best Cyclical Stocks to Buy Now
7 Best Marijuana Stocks to Buy in 2023
7 Best Tech Index Funds to Buy Now
6 Index Funds for Less Than $55

Invested will take Labor Day off and return on Tuesday with more stock market news and advice.

3D rendered image of a stock market graph close up

With the Labor Day weekend signaling the last days of summer, investors are left to wonder if there's enough heat to keep the U.S. economy percolating after the first eight months of 2023.

Inflation still vexes U.S. households, and high interest rates are holding the nation's housing and credit markets hostage with no relief in sight. Later in the year, rising oil and gas prices coupled with angst over China's wobbly economy threw a few more logs on the fire.

Now, talk of a recession remains on the front burner as autumn beckons. Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators – a survey of more than 50 U.S. economists employed by some of America's largest and most respected manufacturers, banks and insurance companies – assigns a 50% probability of a recession within the next 12 months as of early August. That's down from 56% in July and 61% in May.

With stock market returns receding in a rough market and continued high consumer prices and credit and lending rates, can the stock market keep moving forward toward the end of 2023, or is a potential market crash in play?

Here's an inside look at the seven most significant stock market risk factors:

  • A roiling stock market.
  • High inflation.
  • A stock market disconnect.
  • A difficult housing market.
  • September economic data.
  • China woes.
  • Rising oil prices.
Click here to continue reading.

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