Looming Recession

In my efforts to strive to present a balance with conflicting views, I submit this week's edition of WealthTrack and Consuelo Mack's guest, Nancy Lazar, a leading Wall Street economist who seeks to make the case that Americans should be preparing for a serious recession and not the "soft landing" that most of Wall Street has been banking on.  

I can't say I agree with anything she puts forth. Recessions are always preceded by failing companies (earnings are at historic highs and GDP is on very solid ground) and rising unemployment (we currently have one of the lowest unemployment rates in history; in fact quite the opposite, we have more jobs than people to fill them.)  So I don't really buy any of her bullet-points but, for the sake of balance, here they are.  

Looming Recession

May 16, 2024

Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,

They say location is everything in real estate. It can also make a huge difference in your job opportunities and income. 

For years, this week’s guest, leading Wall Street economist Nancy Lazar has called Middle America her favorite emerging market. According to Lazar the advantages of business-friendly locations, energy independence, relatively low corporate tax rates and a less competitive China have led to a manufacturing renaissance in the Midwest and South. Goods-producing states like Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Alabama, and Idaho have been job winners. 

However even with increased onshoring of U.S. manufacturing and the enormous government investment of the CHIPS and Inflation Reduction Acts, Lazar warns that Middle America cannot escape the national headwinds of higher interest rates, tight bank lending standards and higher wages and prices.

Nancy Lazar is the Chief Global Economist at Piper Sandler where she leads the Economic Research team. Before joining Piper Sandler she was Chief Global Economist and Head of Economic Research at the highly respected independent macro research firm, Cornerstone Macro which she co-founded in 2013.  She has been an Institutional Investor-ranked economist since 2001, placing in the top two the past 10 years and ranking #1 in 2015. She has also been on Barron’s 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance list in each of the last five years including this year.  

In this weekend’s interview, Lazar explains why she sees recession looming as consumers come under increasing financial pressure from rising debt levels and unemployment. In our online EXTRA interview, she shares her conviction that China will not usurp the United States as the world’s most powerful economy. 

In addition to public television, the show can be seen on our website over the weekend. The WEALTHTRACK podcast is available on SoundCloud as well as iTunes and Spotify.

Have a lovely weekend and make the week ahead a healthy, profitable and productive one!

Best regards,

Consuelo