Monday, May 15, 2017

Wall Street rises with help from technology, financial, energy stocks

Oil drove the numbers today as the Dow shot straight up right out the gate and stayed there after the Saudis and Russia announced that supply cuts would continue, also shooting crude up given the tenacity of the glut problem that has been dampening the energy markets for some time now.  Good housing data also promoted optimism and the Dow closed 85 points up, though investors are still looking for more evidence that the economy hasn’t peaked.  Volume was below average at 6.3 billion shares. 

Sunday, May 14, 2017

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 5.12.17 (plus "Sell in May")

I have been waiting five days to make this post so that I could share Wednesday's very interesting submission from our friends at Heritage Capital Research concerning the whole phenomenon about "Sell In May and Go Away," especially in view of the fact that it was a topic of discussion at our last MRI meeting.  This author offers a different perspective, arguing that though traditionally "Sell in May and Go Away," may work in theory, in this particular market at this particular time it's probably not a good strategy.  Very interesting reading.  And, as always, I also offer the usual weekly summary.  Hope everyone enjoyed this very pleasant weekend.

Friday, May 12, 2017

Wall Street falls, department stores take a drubbing

There was a 150 point panic in the market yesterday morning when Macy’s and Kohl’s turned in poor reports.  So all eyes were on today’s retail report, hoping it would reveal that purchasing habits had merely shifted rather than declined.  No such luck.  The much anticipated report showed that consumer spending was indeed slowing and that the retail sector was in trouble.  This sent more shock waves to those fearing that less consumer spending will translate to slower growth.  Fortunately most of the shock was absorbed yesterday with today’s Dow sinking a very modest 22 points.  Volume was also lighter than average at 6.1 billion shares.  Today’s report does however fuel concerns that the S&P at 17.6 times earnings is overpriced and due for a drawdown.

Thursday, May 11, 2017

Wall Street slides as investors fret about retail

This morning the Dow sank almost 150 points right out the gate on bad news from Macy’s and Kohl’s portending more bad news from tomorrow’s retail report.  Even though economic reporting has been overwhelmingly positive, with the market so overbought, investors are looking for more good news to justify the high prices.  After the initial panic, the index came back steadily throughout the day to close just 23 points down.  Still the question remains:  have consumers really slowed their buying habits this dramatically or have they merely shifted to online shopping?  Tomorrow’s data will shed more light.  Like yesterday, volume was in line with recent averages.

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Wall Street mixed after Trump fires FBI head; Nasdaq hits record high

Comey’s firing is being taken by investors as just another of many distractions from tax reform and again raising the question of the president’s ability to be focused on the important issues.  Thus the Dow dove 90 points before recovering late in the session to a 32 point loss.  With Q1 nearly over, all eyes now are on Friday’s retail report.  The market is looking for continued positive data to justify the high prices.  Volume remained about average at 6.7 billion.

Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Wall Street loses oomph but Apple crosses $800-billion mark

First the Dow was up 35 points right out the gate, then crashed all day long over a hundred points before finally zooming in the final half hour to close 36 points down.  Despite this, the S&P reached a record high intra-day and Apple made the historic crossing of the $800 billion mark in capitalization.  Q1 and France continue to give investors confidence but U.S. stocks being valued so much higher than average has also given the markets pause.  Improving earnings and the hopes for tax reform are driving the indexes.  Volume was about average at 6.7  billion.  

Monday, May 8, 2017

Wall Street flat; fear barometer falls to 1993 low

Very little movement in the market today as investors expected the victory in France over the weekend and since that’s exactly what they got, there was no place to go.  So the Dow rose a mere 5 points.  The “fear” index has dropped to its lowest point since 1993 meaning investors are comfortable with the state of the economy and the market, but maybe a little too comfortable.  Today’s expert is saying that the very low VIX may be “signaling that something negative is in the works.”  And with the S&P trading at nearly 18 times earnings, there should be something negative coming.  But the major indicators remain strong so, as another expert put it, “We remain largely constructive of the equity market.”   Volume was below average at 6.3 billion.