S&P ends down slightly as U.S. talks tariff exemptions

Another wild day with the Dow bouncing back and forth in a 300 point range as investors continue to try to make sense of the tariff announcement, taking some solace in today’s White House statement that the tariff will not be applied broadly though, as one expert reminded us, “We have nothing in writing.  If there’s one thing we’ve learned from this administration is that it could change by the time it’s in writing.”  After being down more than 300 points, the Dow finally settled in with an 86 point loss.  Volume was 6.7 billion. 

Wall Street gains even as trade war worries dominate

Yesterday, investor sentiment was resoundingly that the tariffs were not going to happen.  Today mixed signals from the White House created a good deal of uncertainty on the issue again and the market didn’t like it one bit, swinging back and forth all day long in a 300 point range but at least closing at a near wash.  The experts are warning everyone to prepare for a big dive in the event that the worst fears come true.  Until then the market will be grasping at straws.  Today’s good news is the possibility of talks with North Korea, but mostly it was a wild ride of speculating on bad news.  Nearly 7 billion shares were traded. 

Wall Street closes higher as trade war fears ease

Depending on who you’re listening to, Trump’s proposed tariffs will either have little impact on the economy or won’t even happen at all.  In today’s news, it was the latter scenario, some even suggesting that it’s just a political ploy to put the NAFTA squeeze on Canada and Mexico (as if they care.)  But the objective facts show the market no longer believing a trade war will happen and part of the evidence is that the countries involved have thus far taken no retaliatory action, indicating they don’t think it will happen either.  All of this along with Italy’s election has reassured investors that all is right with the world after all and boosted the Dow 336 points, as well as healthy boosts to the other two major indexes.  Oil too is up today on reports that demand is now expected to grow after years of being subdued by a global glut in crude.  Volume was healthy at 6.9 billion and happily below the elevated panic levels of the last four weeks when the average was 8.3 billion. 

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events for 3.2.18 (plus ethics investing)

Tonight was Oscar Night so I'm making this one quick.  Below is the usual weekly summation with jobless claims being their lowest in almost half a century but still a very rough week in the wake of the tariff announcements which very nearly wiped out the recovery and almost sent the market into another correction.  Because gun violence has really dominated the news as of late, this week's bonus is a very instructive article from the February 16th issue of Investment News about how investors can use market strategies to promote one's ethical values, whatever they may be.  This article applies this theory to the gun debate, but it can apply equally to any social or political issue.  Hope everyone enjoyed the wonderful weekend.  Snow is back in the forecast for Tuesday. 

10 Weekend Reads plus Private Boom

For this weekend's read, I offer Barry Ritholtz's Weekend Reads from his Big Picture blog, this one with interesting looking articles about hedge funds, a history of volatility, and algorithms -- all the good things that make the market run.  There's also a very interesting graphic showing the last 12 years of portfolio construction -- hedge funds vs private funds vs passive funds.  It should be no surprise that passive funds have grown dramatically in the past several years since that's what happens in a long running bull market.  But it should be equally obvious that when the bulls stop running, managed risk investing is the way to go.  Enjoy the wonderful March weather we're finally having after Thursday's grand debacle.

S&P 500 gains for day but posts weekly losses on trade war fears

For the last three sessions investors were acting like it’s the end of the world with all the panic selling over Trump’s tariff announcements.  Today everything switched course 180 as everyone now seems content to believe it’s not going to be that big a deal after all.  The Secretary of Commerce described the tariffs as “trivial” and suddenly the market decides there will be no trade war or any adverse effects to U.S. corporate earnings.  The Dow dipped modestly 70 points, that is modestly compared to the rest of the week, but the Nasdaq and S&P both gained.  Let’s give investors the weekend to mull this further and see if this new found optimism is still in play on Monday.  Volume remains high at 7.7 billion. 

Wall Street drops more than 1 percent on Trump tariff comments

Today the President said something that the market very much did not want to hear when he announced tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, a move that will certainly raise prices on key consumer items and very likely fuel inflation much more than is already feared.  The reaction was quite predictable – a 420 point sell off in the Dow, the 3^rd straight day of the index losing more than 1 percent.  These three consecutive losing days has taken the S&P from a point of 70% recovery from the January 26^th high at the beginning of the week to down 6 percent from the high, or half of the recovery lost.  Adding to the woes was NY Fed Prez Dudley saying in more pointed language that there will be a fourth hike this year.  So nothing good happened today which resulted in the very high volume of 9 billion shares traded in a sell off.