Wall Street ends sharply lower as anxiety rises, earnings heat up

Wall Street ends sharply lower as anxiety rises, earnings heat up

By Stephen Culp

Thu July 18, 2024 4:26 PM

It was a major day of correction as after a brilliant rotation from megacaps and tech to small caps and the Dow, sending them to major records, all three indexes had investors cashing out their profits and all three into a major downward tailspin, especially the Dow coming down 533 but that’s not so bad considering the enormous 742 point gain on Tuesday. The Dow remains well above the historic 40,000 landmark.  The good news is jobless claims came in as expected further bolstering the case for rate cuts and Q2 reporting continues gathering steam.  Volume was a little above average at 12.14 billion. 

DJ: 41,198.08  +243.60     NAS: 17,996.93  -512.42       S&P: 5,588.27  -78.93   7/17

DJ: 40,665.02  -533.06      NAS: 17,871.22  -125.70       S&P: 5,544.59  -43.68   7/18

Thu 7-18-24 4:26 pm Wall Street ends sharply lower as anxiety rises, earnings heat up | Reuters  

Nasdaq, S&P 500 end sharply lower, hit by chips, megacaps; Dow extends rally

Nasdaq, S&P 500 end sharply lower, hit by chips, megacaps; Dow extends rally

By Stephen Culp

Wed July 17, 2024 7:27 PM

The Dow was on a straight shot up with another impressive 3-digit gain sending the index to its third straight record.  The Nasdaq and S&P were both on an even more impressive straight shot down with rather big 3-digit losses as blue chips continue to be seen as undervalued and thus has suddenly created this rotation out of tech. Today’s tech problems were triggered by news that Biden will impose trade restrictions on China, and that sent all the chip stocks down, the chip index registering its biggest loss in over 4 years.

But the rather good news was that industrial output rose by double the June forecast and the odds of a September rate cut today stand at 93.5% as the data all reaffirms the resiliency of an economy with inflation on a sustainable downward path, all of which will benefit the economically sensitive stocks. Anyway, the China news sent the whole tech index into freefall with corresponding slightly above average volume of 12.47 billion.   

DJ: 40,954.48  +742.76      NAS: 18,509.34  +36.77      S&P: 5,667.20  +35.98  7/16

DJ: 41,198.08  +243.60      NAS: 17,996.93  -512.42     S&P: 5,588.27  -78.93   7/17

Wed 7-17-24 7:27 pm Nasdaq, S&P 500 end sharply lower, hit by chips, megacaps; Dow extends rally | Reuters  

Dow notches record closing high, small caps surge on rate cut bets

Dow notches record closing high, small caps surge on rate cut bets

By Stephen Culp

Tue July 16, 2024 4:38 PM

DJ: 40,211 .72  +210.82     NAS: 18,472.57  +74.12      S&P: 5,631.22  +15.87  7/15

DJ:  40,954.48  +742.76     NAS: 18,509.34  +36.77      S&P: 5,667.20  +35.98  7/16

It was a straight shot up for everyone but the Nasdaq with so much good news regarding a September rate cut (now odds at 100%), strong retail sales indicating a resilient economy, and strong earnings have caused investors to rotate from the huge megacaps to the small caps in the Dow which are most likely to benefit from a rate cut. The Dow surged huge, up 742 points as did the S&P, but leading the Dow to a record close. The value-oriented Dow has been ignored due to the craze in tech but now is considered under-valued and thus the huge buying spree.  Volume was slightly above the 4-week average at 11.83 billion. 

Tue 7-16-24 4:38 pm Dow notches record closing high, small caps surge on rate cut bets | Reuters  

Wall St ends higher as investors firm bets on Trump win, rate cuts

Wall St ends higher as investors firm bets on Trump win, rate cuts

By Stephen Culp

Mon July 15, 2024 4:26 PM

DJ: 40,000.90  +247.15     NAS: 18,398.45  +115.04       S&P: 5,615.35  +30.81  7/12

DJ: 40,211 .72  +210.82    NAS: 18,472.57  +74.12         S&P: 5,631.22  +15.87  7/15

Since the weekend’s events and Trump’s subsequent boost in the polls, investors have become more comfortable with a Trump 2^nd term with the hopes of more tax cuts and less regulation and put the odds of a Trump victory at 67% (vs 60% last week) and a mere 26% for Biden per online betting site PredictIt. (Have no idea how reputable PredictIt is.) 

Anyway, there was another rally today to build more on Friday’s, with a September rate cut now considered a virtual certainty. It was however another seesaw today with the indexes up and down all day. The Dow reached a high of +351 before declining, the Nasdaq a high of +241, the S&P +50, all around the noon hour before declining.  The exuberance was only in the morning and then quickly died off.  Volume still remains below the 4-week average at 11.07 billion. 

Mon 7-15-24 4:26 pm Wall St ends higher as investors firm bets on Trump win, rate cuts | Reuters  

 

Wall Street closes higher on bets for Fed rate cut

Wall Street closes higher on bets for Fed rate cut

By Noel Randewich and Medha Singh

Fri July 12, 2024 4:27 PM

This is one of the reasons the market is always so fascinating. You just never know what’s going to happen. Yesterday, there was a big sell off despite much increased optimism for rate cuts, but on the consensus that though the rate cuts should have been good news, it was taken that tech had already gone as high as it would so everyone rotated into industrials. Today, the consensus was the opposite with everyone buying tech, especially Tesla, like crazy on a second day of exuberance over a September rate cut, today with odds jumping to 94% vs 78% a week ago.

Both the Dow and S&P reached intraday records around 2 pm, the Dow gaining almost 500 points, before both declining, the Dow closing at a plus 247. Even the Nasdaq was up almost 300 at 2 pm before also declining. Still, it was considered a positive sign that investors continued rotating into the Dow and the forecast for Q2 earnings growth has shot up to 9.6%. Volume was close to average at 11.3 billion. 

DJ: 39,753.75  +32.39       NAS: 18,283.41  -364.04       S&P: 5,584.54  -49.37   7/11

DJ: 40,000.90  +247.15     NAS: 18,398.45  +115.04       S&P: 5,615.35  +30.81  7/12  

Fri 7-12-24 4:27 pm Wall Street closes higher on bets for Fed rate cut | Reuters 

Nasdaq ends sharply lower as investors rotate out of Big Tech

Nasdaq ends sharply lower as investors rotate out of Big Tech

By Noel Randewich and Lisa Pauline Mattackal

Thu July 11, 2024 4:26 PM

The CPI came in quite well today, showing an unexpected drop in prices and the smallest annual increase in a year, strongly bolstering the case for a September rate cut which is now considered a virtual certainty at 90% odds vs 74% yesterday. That should have very much excited the markets but instead resulted in a consensus that tech had gone as high as it’s going to and it was time to sell off and rotate back into industrials, with the Dow up over 150 in the morning before declining and settling for a more modest 32 point gain at close. Thus it was a straight path down for both the S&P and Nasdaq, which took a heavy 3-digit loss and broke the long 7 day and 6 day record breaking winning streaks for both the Nasdaq and S&P respectively. Trading was heavy and for a change above the 4-week average at 12.6 billion. 

DJ: 39,721.36  +429.39      NAS: 18,647.45  +218.16      S&P: 5,633.91  +56.93  7/10

DJ: 39,753.75  +32.39        NAS: 18,283.41  -364.04       S&P: 5,584.54  -49.37   7/11

Thu 7-11-24 4:26 pm Nasdaq ends sharply lower as investors rotate out of Big Tech | Reuters  

Nvidia leads Nasdaq and S&P 500 to record high closes

Nvidia leads Nasdaq and S&P 500 to record high closes

By Noel Randewich and Ankika Biswas

Wed July 10, 2024 4:13 PM

The day started near flat for all the indexes but then immediately went upward for the entire session closing with hefty 3-digit gains all around, the seventh straight record for the Nasdaq and sixth for the S&P as it crossed the 5,600 mark for the first time. The trigger was the double whammy of Taiwan Semiconductor posting a strong Q2 (which also strongly boosted Nvidia and the rest of tech) and Powell’s remarks today that he had “some confidence” that inflation was moving sustainably down.

The whole tech index surged 2.4%.  The big inflation data (CPI and PPI) is coming Friday, along with the first of the big bank Q2, but confidence is strong enough to warrant this rally and to put the odds of a September rate cut up to 74% today vs 70 yesterday vs 45 last month. But awaiting the coming reports, volume remains light at 10 billion vs an 11.5 average. 

 

DJ: 39,291.97  -52.82       NAS: 18,429.29  +25.55       S&P: 5,576.98  +4.13    7/9

DJ: 39,721.36  +429.39    NAS: 18,647.45  +218.16     S&P: 5,633.91  +56.93  7/10

Wed 7-10-24 4:13 pm Nvidia leads Nasdaq and S&P 500 to record high closes | Reuters