Sunday, July 5, 2015

Greeks defy Europe with overwhelming referendum 'No'

Mr. Ritholtz did not publish a weekly roundup this weekend, as is usually his habit on a holiday.  'Tis no matter as the real action this week was in Greece and today was the day that the results came in.  As of noon Detroit time, the polls closed in Athens and they were going to project the winners by 2 p.m.  At 4 p.m. the news broke and verdict is a whopping 62% No!

So the leftist Syriza government wins and the conservatives lose.  It does give me some feeling of satisfaction that all these one-percenters who spent a fortune flying to Greece this weekend to try to sway the referendum ending up wasting their money.  Democracy wins!  The Greek people have spoken -- with a 25% unemployment rate (50% among young people), they are done with all these harsh austerity demands, which Syriza has consistently said would only make the problem worse.  So the government is now saying they are ready to return to the negotiating table tomorrow hoping for a more reasonable deal now.  Germany is remaining stubborn in its insistence that there are no plans for further negotiations and in fact are now ever more serious about kicking Greece out.  This is despite the fact that, notwithstanding the 60% rejection of the EU's demands, 80% of the Greek people still want to stay in the EU.  And most of the EU members are in sympathy with Greece and think Germany should hold back on the lash.  Will there be a new meeting tomorrow based on today's election (which completely shocked the EU)?   My guess is if not a new meeting at least the announcement of a new meeting will come sometime tomorrow.  The EU's credibility and future has now been severely challenged as a consequence of today's election, even if Germany chooses to downplay that.  At this point, it can be argued that Europe has a great deal more to lose than Greece if an agreement cannot be reached.  Stay tuned.

Greeks defy Europe with overwhelming referendum 'No' | Reuters

Markets | Sun Jul 5, 2015 4:57pm EDT

Greeks defy Europe with overwhelming referendum 'No'

ATHENS | BY KAROLINA TAGARIS AND LEFTERIS PAPADIMAS

(Reuters)  Greeks voted overwhelmingly on Sunday to reject terms of a bailout, risking financial ruin in a show of defiance that could splinter Europe.
With nearly half of the votes counted, official figures showed 61 percent of Greeks rejecting the bailout offer. An official interior ministry projection confirmed the figure as close to the expected final tally.
The astonishingly strong victory by the 'No' camp overturned opinion polls that had predicted an outcome too close to call. It leaves Greece in uncharted waters: risking financial and political isolation within the euro zone and a banking collapse if creditors refuse further aid.
But for millions of Greeks the outcome was an angry message to creditors that Greece can longer accept repeated rounds of austerity that, in five years, had left one in four without a job. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has denounced the price paid for aid as "blackmail" and a national "humiliation".
Hundreds of Greeks began pouring into the central Syntagma square in front of parliament to celebrate, after a week of building desperation as banks were shut and cash withdrawals rationed to prevent a collapse of the Greek financial system.
"This is an imprint of the will of the Greek people and now it's up to Europeans to show if they respect our opinion and want to help," said Nikos Tarasis, a 23-year-old student.
Officials from the Greek government, which had argued that a 'No' vote would strengthen its hand to secure a better deal from international creditors after months of wrangling, immediately said they would try to restart talks with European partners.
"I believe there is no Greek today who is not proud, because regardless of what he voted he showed that this country above all respects democracy," Labour Minister Panos Skourletis said.
"The government now has a strong mandate, a strong negotiating card, to bring a deal which will open new ways."
But euro zone officials shot down any prospect of a quick resumption of talks. One official said there were no plans for an emergency meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Monday, adding the vote outcome meant the ministers "would not know what to discuss".

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Many of Athens' partners have warned over the past week that a 'No' vote would mean cutting bridges with Europe and driving Greece's crippled financial system into outright bankruptcy, dramatically worsening the country's economic depression.
The result also delivers a hammer blow to the European Union's grand single currency project. Intended to be permanent and unbreakable when it was created 15 years ago, the euro zone could now be on the point of losing its first member with the risk of further unraveling to come.
"I believe such a result can be used as a strong negotiating tool so that Europeans can understand that we are not a colony," said Nefeli Dimou, a 23-year-old student in Athens.
Greek banks, which have been closed all week and rationing withdrawals from cash machines, are expected to run out of money within days unless the European Central Bank provides an emergency lifeline. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis is due to meet top Greek bankers later on Sunday and State Minister Nikos Pappas, one of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's closest aides, said it was "absolutely necessary" to restore liquidity to the banking system now that the vote is over.
    However the European Central Bank, which holds a conference call on Monday morning, may be reluctant to increase emergency lending to Greek banks after voters rejected the spending cuts and economic reforms which creditors consider essential to make Greek public finances viable, central bankers said.
First indications were that any joint European political response may take a couple of days. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande will meet in Paris on Monday afternoon. The European Commission, the EU executive, meets in Strasbourg on Tuesday and will report to the European Parliament on the situation.

Tourists in Greece witness history

"EU leaders must get together immediately, even on Monday. The situation is too serious to leave to finance ministers," said Axel Schaefer, a deputy head of the Social Democrat (SPD) group in the German parliament.
"You have to have confidence in the ability of the ECB to act. We must use all the possibilities in the EU budget to help Greece, which is still a member of the euro and the EU."
UNCHARTED
A 'No' vote puts Greece and the euro zone in uncharted waters. Unable to borrow money on capital markets, Greece has one of the world's highest levels of public debt. The International Monetary Fund warned last week that it would need massive debt relief and 50 billion euros in fresh funds.

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Greek officials see the IMF report as a vital support for their argument that the bailout terms as they stood would merely have driven Greece further into depression.
Tsipras called the referendum eight days ago after rejecting the tough terms offered by international creditors as the price for releasing billions of euros in bailout funds.
He denounced the bailout terms as an "ultimatum" and his argument that a 'No' vote would allow the government to get a better deal appears to have convinced many Greeks, particularly among younger voters who have been ravaged by unemployment levels of nearly 50 percent.
"I have been jobless for nearly four years and was telling myself to be patient," said 43-year-old Eleni Deligainni, who said she voted 'No'. "But we've had enough deprivation and unemployment."
Opinion polls over the months have shown a large majority of Greeks want to remain in the euro.
But, exhausted and angry after five years of cuts, falling living standards and rising taxes imposed under successive bailout programs, many appear to have shrugged off the warnings of disaster, trusting that a deal can still be reached.

For a graphic: here

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