Monday, July 13, 2015

Wall Street rallies on Greek deal; tech stocks jump

Yesterday the EU said it would be another week before a deal could be finalized.  Today it looks like the deal has happened.  Greece is going to get its 95 billion to cover debt payments for three years and enough emergency funding to hold out until the bailout is ready.  The EU gets an agreement from Greece to accept more austerity, something the Greeks are not happy about but, after the hell they've been through the past few weeks, at least it will return them to the smaller hell they've been in the last few years.  Beyond that, hope remains.  For more specifics on that particular controversy, I submit the following:

Greek PM Tsipras faces party revolt over bailout deal | Reuters

It was enough to push the Dow up 217 points, which was Wall Street's way of saying "we're satisfied this crisis is over."  And as the Greek crisis has caused oil prices to plunge, that same plunge has caused airline stocks to soar.  That's the way the market works.  For every yin, there's a yang, for every up, there's a down.  Today's below average volume of 5.9 billion is yet another indication that Wall Street is no longer worried about Greece.  Should the rest of us be more concerned about Greece?  To delve into that question more carefully, here's an article that summarizes all the latest demands the EU has made:

Greek Debt Crisis 2015A | Reuters.com

Finally, I received a request tonight for an explanation on the Greek crisis from a layperson who would be the first to admit that finance and economics is not his or her forte.  The following was my reply.  I make no warranties that anybody else is going to agree with my assessment.  I submit it simply as another analysis and opinion among many that are out there.

      "I have been following the crisis in Greece in detail for quite a long time now and have written about it extensively in my financial blog, especially of late. So you can find a great deal more information about it including extensive links to articles by simply browsing my Marias blog. Even though I do not consider Robert Reich to be one of our better economists, I do agree with him on the austerity issue and that it is all wrong for Greece, something that both the U.S. government and such allies as Great Britain, France, and Japan have been trying to tell the EU for some time now. And the economists that I do hold in high regard, including some Wall Streeters, also agree that more austerity is not the appropriate solution for a country that has 25% unemployment (and quite possibly closer to 60% according to NPR).
       Nobody is unaware that the Greek crisis is impacting Europe and the rest of the world. That is the reason why the markets have been swinging so wildly ever since this whole thing started. And it is quite an oversimplification to say that Goldman Sachs started it all. It is far more accurate to say that all the corruption and financial chicanery that GS engaged in during the 2000s was PART (along with many other firms) of what caused the implosion that lead to the Great Recession that impacted all of the U.S. and the global economy in general. Greece simply got caught up in the same tidal wave as every other country in the world but there was no direct cause and effect that was unique to Greece. Greece had been digging its own grave for many years before Goldman Sachs came along.
       This year the Greek people decided that the conservative approach wasn't working at all and so voted in Syriza. My opinion is that the EU is playing hard ball as an attempt to get rid of the leftist Syriza government. So far I'm happy to say it hasn't worked. They were hoping the Greek people would rise up against Syriza last Sunday but instead the vote was overwhelmingly in support. Syriza is a brand new government which inherited a disastrous situation and is trying its level best to rebuild a broken country. All they're really asking for is time to do this -- and that means time that they don't have to be constantly worried about making these impossible debt payments every month, something I consider quite reasonable. 
        Greece needs money to rebuild its industrial base which in turn will then create all the massive new jobs to put the Greek people back to work, jobs that will then generate a new tax base that the government can then use to make its debt payments. Where else does the EU think this money can come from? Instead, the EU leaders are standing on principle and insisting there are only two options -- pay your debts or go bankrupt. 
         No, there are better options out there. Fortunately, I think the deal that is being brokered this week might just provide some better options even if it is still going to be a bitter pill for the Greek people to swallow. The EU has not really been reasonable. Thus, I'm on Greece's side. The EU thinks it holds all the cards but that is not really true and I think sooner rather than later they will realize this and become more reasonable.


         Mike"

Markets | Mon Jul 13, 2015 7:24pm EDT

Wall Street rallies on Greek deal; tech stocks jump


DJ:    17,977.68  +217.27    NAS:      5,071.51  +73.82       S&P:      2,099.60  +22.98

(Reuters)  U.S. stocks finished sharply higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones industrial average re-emerging in positive territory for the year, after euro zone leaders reached a tentative deal to bail out Greece.
The improved European picture led to best three-day run this year for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
Facebook (FB.O), Netflix (NFLX.O) and Amazon (AMZN.O) all hit record highs, while Apple's (AAPL.O) 1.93 percent rise gave the biggest boost to the Nasdaq.
Greece won conditional agreement to receive a possible $95 billion over three years, along with an assurance of talks to bridge a funding gap until a bailout is ready. The deal is contingent on Greece meeting a tight timetable to enact strict reforms.
"Headlines out of Greece are going to dissipate a bit and with that the U.S. earnings picture is going to start to emerge as the important factor," said Mike Binger, a portfolio manager at Gradient Investments in Shoreview, Minnesota, with $850 million under management.
Also making Wall Street more confident, Chinese stocks rose for a third straight day as data showed exports rose while imports slipped in June, a tentative sign global demand might be on the mend.
Historically high stock valuations may attract fresh attention when U.S. companies post second-quarter results over the next several weeks. Wall Street expects a 2.9 percent dip in quarterly earnings, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Pointing to expectations of calmer trading, the CBOE Volatility index .VIX fell 16 percent on Monday. Its 29 percent decline in the past two sessions is the largest two-day drop since Jan. 2, 2013.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 217.27 points, or 1.22 percent, to end at 17,977.68. The S&P 500 .SPX gained 22.98 points, or 1.11 percent, to 2,099.6 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 73.82 points, or 1.48 percent, to 5,071.51.
All of 10 major S&P 500 sectors were higher, led by the technology index .SPLRCT, up 1.62 percent. The financial index .SPSY rose 1.09 percent. Upcoming quarterly earnings reports from banks are expected to benefit from a recent rise in long-term yields relative to short term yields.
Crude tumbled on progress toward a nuclear deal that would end sanctions on Iran, allowing more oil onto the market. The energy index .SPNY stayed positive but has been the worst-performing S&P sector over the last month, falling over 5 percent.
The oil slide boosted U.S. airline stocks .DJUSAR. American Airlines (AAL.O), United Continental (UAL.N), JetBlue (JBLU.O) and Alaska Air (ALK.N) were all up between 1 and 3 percent.
Apple (AAPL.O) was up 4.66 percent in the past two days for its best back-to-back run since January.
Markwest Energy Partners (MWE.N) rose 13.96 percent. MPLX (MPLX.N), Marathon Petroleum's (MPC.N) master limited partnership, said it will buy the natural gas processor for about $15.63 billion. MPLX (MPLX.N) fell 14.51 while Marathon rose 7.88 percent.
Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 2,242 to 830. On the Nasdaq, 2,002 issues rose and 808 fell.
The S&P 500 posted 43 new 52-week highs and 10 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 149 new highs and 42 new lows.
About 5.9 billion shares traded on all U.S. platforms, according to BATS exchange data, below the month-to-date average of 6.9 billion.

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