Sunday, September 18, 2016

Succinct Summations for the week ending September 16th 2016

Still another week goes by without my new computer.  This is now 7 weeks and once again I am told it will be ready in the next day or two.  In fact, on Friday I was told that it was ready and that I could pick it up tomorrow.  Tomorrow I'll find out if this is yet another entrepreneurial exaggeration or something I can take to the bank.  Next weekend will likely be my final unsolicited distribution.


I attended the MRI group on Monday and, after giving a presentation on the CFP, announced that I would likely continue the distribution to everybody and simply allow those who wished to opt out to inform me as such.  As I noted, people tend to be slow to ask to subscribe but quick to ask to be removed.  So I will simply ask those who wish to be removed to speak up.

Meanwhile, as is my usual commitment, below is the weekly succinct summation.  As has been the trend, the turmoil continues as everyone waits on the Fed's next move.  It is likely that beginning next Sunday, I will abandon the weekly update and resume the daily. Hope everyone had a great weekend.  This will be my last weekend of uncertainty.  On Wednesday I find out if I qualify for the internship and are thereby on my way to becoming a CFP some two years hence.  I suspect it will be a very fast two years.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.16.16


Succinct Summations for the week ending September 16th 2016

Positives:

1. Initial jobless claims were 260k, 5k below the estimate, and essentilally the same as last week (259k). 4 week average = 261k.
2. CPI rose 0.2% m/o/m and 1.1% y/o/y. Core rose 0.3% and 2.3% respectively. The 0.3% rise was the largest since February.
3. Purchase applications to buy a home saw a nice 8.6% week over week rebound; The year over year gain was 7.7%, better than the 6.9% gain last week.
4. Wholesale prices in August were benign with headline PPI zero y/o/y while the core rate was up 1%. Same story with pressure on goods prices and price gains in services.
5. MBA mortgage applications rose 4.2% w/o/w.
6. Philly Fed business outlook survey came in at 12.8, well above expectations.

Negatives:

1. Industrial and manufacturing production fell 0.4% m/o/m.
2. US Retail sales ex auto / gasoline fell 0.1% (again) and was below the estimate of +0.3%. Core sales fell by 0.1%, below the estimate of +0.4%; Auto sales fell by 0.9% m/o/m but are still up 3.9% y/o/y. Building material sales also fell.
3. Consumer price inflation increased 0.2% headline and 0.3% core m/o/m (more than expected). The y/o/y headline gain was 1.1%, the most since January and the core rate was up by 2.3% — the highest level in 8 years.
4. NFIB small business optimism fell to 94.4, down from 94.6, and slightly below expectations.
5. Consumer sentiment fell from 90.8 to 89.8, coming in slightly below expectations.
6. Empire state manufacturing survey came in at -1.99, dragged down by the factory sector and new orders.

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