Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 3.13.20 (plus COVID-19 Impact on 2020 Presidential Election)

Below please find the usual weekly summation, the main positive being thanks to Friday's late great rally the losses for the week were under 9%, else it might have been much worse.  And the negatives are painfully obvious, that is the historic disruption to our society from COVID-19, much of which has worsened over the weekend since this summary was published, and this will undoubtedly be reflected in tomorrow's market so let's not celebrate Friday's rally too quickly. 


The bonus this Sunday evening is a very telling graphic published Friday showing how dramatically public opinion has shifted on the prospects of a Dem vs Rep victory in November in the past few weeks since this crisis became genuinely serious.  Hope everyone had a great weekend, and please stay safe. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 3.13.20

March 13, 2020 6:00pm by Barry Ritholtz

Succinct Summations for the week ending March 13th, 2020

Positives:

1.  All things considered, it could have been much worse this week. Market finished down 8.8%.
2. Jobless claims fell 4k w/o/w from 215k to 211k.
3. Home mortgage apps rose 6.0% w/o/w, above previous decrease.
4. Home refinance apps rose 79.0%, above the previous increase.
5. CPI rose 0.1% m/o/m, meeting expectations.
6. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in at 104.5 for Feb.

Negatives:

1.  POTUS & his team clearly not up to dealing with a global pandemic.
2. ISM reports that 70% of its respondents experienced a coronavirus disruption.
3. Import prices fell 0.5% m/o/m, below the previous no change.
4. Export prices fell 1.1%, below the previous increase of 0.7%.
5. Consumer Sentiment Index is at 95.9 for March, below expectations.
6. PPI-FD fell 0.6% m/o/m, below the previous increase.

Corona Virus + POTUS Response is Impacting 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds