Sunday, March 22, 2020

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 3.20.20 (plus things to do in self-quarantine)

Below is the usual weekly summation, the main positive being the huge stimulus package on the books for next week, the big negative that we are almost certainly in recession (though technically a recession has to be a GDP contraction for two consecutive quarters and we're not even close to that yet) and the unemployment rate in the last two weeks has likely already reached 20%, which hopefully will be a very temporary situation but only time will tell. I mean it's not like the demand for those jobs has disappeared. Another negative that really should be a positive is jobless claims rising 70K. With so many businesses shutting down this past week, I'm shocked the number is so low. (And it can't be right. It was on the evening news that 108K applied this week in Michigan alone!) Look for a much bigger number next week.

The bonus this Sunday evening for those of you already getting cabin fever is this wonderful list of diversions that Barry Ritholtz posted on his blog this morning, a list of top grade concerts and museums that can be attended online (with a link that contains access to hundreds more.) You can only store so much food so it's impossible not to go out at all and I'm really surprised that a lot more stores are not rationing as there is no excuse for running out of basic supplies. It's ridiculous that they are allowing people to buy 30 cans of beans all at once. The few that are rationing have ample for everyone. Stay safe, stay well.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 3.20.20

March 20, 2020 5:30pm by Barry Ritholtz

Succinct Summations for the week ending March 20th, 2020

Positives:

1. Looks like a trillion dollar stimulus package is coming next week.
2. Job openings came in at 6.963M for January, above the expected 6.400M.
3. Housing starts came in at 1.599M for February, above the expected 1.520M.
4. Existing home sales came in at 5.770M for February, above the expected 5.500M.
5. Industrial production rose 0.6% m/o/m, above the expected increase of 0.4%.
6. Same store sales rose 8.5% w/o/w, above the previous increase of 6.0%.

Negatives:

1. USA likely already in recession; unemployment levels might exceed 20%.
2. Jobless claims rose 70k w/o/w from 211k to 281k.
3. Home mortgage apps fell 1.0% w/o/w, below the previous increase of 6.0%.
4. Retail sales fell 0.5% m/o/m, below the expected increase of 0.2%.
5. Business inventories fell 0.1% m/o/m, below the previous increase of 0.1%.
6. Housing market index stands at 72 for March, below the expected 74.

3-22-20 Online Museums & Concerts - The Big Picture