Dow scores second record close in a row on lower-rate bets

The indexes continued to rise, if a little more modestly this time, on a second day of euphoria over Fed comments about likely coming rate cuts in 2024 and, for a second day, there was still another record close.  But the charts tell a more mysterious tale of a big crash that occurred from 1 to 2 pm, then a quick recovery thereafter.  There is no explanation for this aberration except that “The market by any measure and any metric is overbought,” but followed by the more conciliatory, “the market celebrates lower rates.”  It’s like there was just a little bit of hesitation at 1 pm, followed by a very quick brush off of concerns.  The other good news included higher than expected retail sales in November indicating a robust holiday season and “further alleviating fears of recession.”  Volume was again way above average, this time at a whopping 17.1 billion. 

Dow scores second record close in a row on lower-rate bets

By Caroline Valetkevitch and Noel Randewich

Thu December 14, 2023 4:27 PM

DJ: 37,090.24  +512.30        NAS: 14,733.96  +200.57        S&P: 4,707.09  +63.39     12/13

DJ: 37,248.35  +158.11        NAS: 14,761.56  +27.60          S&P: 4,719.55  +12.46     12/14

NEW YORK, Dec 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended firmer on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching its second straight record high close, lifted by optimism that borrowing rates will decrease next year following a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve.  Apple (AAPL.O) hit an intra-day record high before surrendering some of its gains to close up 0.08%.  Tesla (TSLA.O) shares surged 4.9%, with about $40 billion worth changing hands. Its turnover was more than double that of Nvidia (NVDA.O), the next most traded company. The heavyweight chipmaker gained 0.5%. 

Sectors that have underperformed this year also rose. Of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, six closed higher, led by energy (.SPNY), up 2.94%, followed by a 2.62% gain in real estate (.SPLRCR).  The S&P 500 (.SPX) climbed 0.26% to end at 4,719.55 points. It remains down less than 2% from its record high close in January 2022.  The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) gained 0.19% at 14,761.56 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.43% to 37,248.35 points.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was unusually heavy, with 17.1 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 11.1 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

The PHLX semiconductor index (.SOX) surged 2.7% to close at a record high. The Russell Index (.RUT) of smaller companies also jumped about 2.7%.  The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as expected, with Chair Jerome Powell saying the historic tightening of monetary policy was likely over, as inflation falls faster than expected, and discussions on cuts in borrowing costs were coming "into view." 

Investors were closely watching 10-year Treasury yields, which broke below 4% for the first time since early August in the wake of the Fed statement. They were last down at 3.94%.  "The market by any measure and any metric is overbought and has been overbought, and a consolidation or a pause has been expected, especially after yesterday's surge," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.  "While the market celebrates lower rates, it can question why yields are below 4%" as investors weigh the economic outlook, she added.

Adobe (ADBE.O) fell 6.35% after the Photoshop maker forecast annual and quarterly revenue below estimates.  U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in November as the holiday shopping season got off to a brisk start, further alleviating fears of a recession, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. 

Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 1.9-to-one ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 96 new highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 259 new highs and 64 new lows.