After a recent rather serious slump, oil came back big today which nicely modified concerns about China and Greece so the Dow rose 93 points. In fact, today suddenly investors see the turmoil in Europe and China as a plus as it may trigger yet another delay in the Fed's plans to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, fun and games continue in Brussels but the referendum seems to have now had the desired effect in moderating unwavering positions on both sides. Expectations are that there will be a deal by Thursday, which Merkel hopes to approve on Friday to become official when the EU ministers to meet to vote on Sunday. At 8.6 billion, volume was quite robust.
Tuesday, July 7, 2015
Monday, July 6, 2015
Energy leads Wall St. lower with eyes on Greece, China
After yesterday's disastrous (for the EU) election, the Greek PM went on TV to assure his people that today was a day that all Greeks could stand proud, that they now had a strong negotiating card for getting better terms from the EU. Angela Merkel heard these comments and immediately declared that nothing could be further from the truth, that Greece's victory would be its undoing and that there were no plans to have further negotiations.
Sunday, July 5, 2015
Greeks defy Europe with overwhelming referendum 'No'
Mr. Ritholtz did not publish a weekly roundup this weekend, as is usually his habit on a holiday. 'Tis no matter as the real action this week was in Greece and today was the day that the results came in. As of noon Detroit time, the polls closed in Athens and they were going to project the winners by 2 p.m. At 4 p.m. the news broke and verdict is a whopping 62% No!
Saturday, July 4, 2015
The Broker Who Saved America
I've been looking all day for some inspirational Revolutionary War themed 4th of July article and finally found a wonderful one in, of all places, Barry Ritholtz's financial blog. Here is the fascinating account of an untold tale in American history -- the Jewish financier who found the money for Washington and the Continental Congress to fight the revolution. He was a financial genius ... and more! His escapades and trickery against the British would make a good movie. So in honor of Independence Day, I submit "The Broker Who Saved America."
Friday, July 3, 2015
Exclusive: Europeans tried to block IMF debt report on Greece: sources
The U.S. markets were closed today for the 4th of July holiday. But Greece is still very much in the financial news. Today's big scoop was that the EU members tried to block a very gloomy report from the IMF that basically said that without help Greece was heading for disaster. The fact that the European nations did not want this published the Greek government is now offering as further evidence that the severe austerity measures being forced upon them are unreasonable and would only hurry along such disaster, thus being a sound reason to reject the proposal. The conservative factions in Greece are now rallying the troops to turn the tide of Sunday's referendum with a great many wealthy global Greeks booking expensive trips back to their homeland so they can vote "Yes" on Sunday. The leftist government continues to urge a "No" vote, hoping that will force the EU to moderate their demands. If the election does motivate the EU to do so, there could be an agreement as early as Monday. The EU, headed by Germany, is hoping for the same only with a slightly different result. If it's "Yes," they will make the deal and hopefully also get the new PM booted out. That appears to be the game that is being played. According to the polls, the race is currently a dead heat. In addition to today's scoop, I am also offering a short video in which the Greek government briefly explains their position, and a good article speculating on what will happen either way. Enjoy your holiday.
Thursday, July 2, 2015
Wall St. edged down on Greece worries, tepid U.S. data
Yesterday the market was way up on new hopes for Greece, today the Dow just modestly down 28 points on new worries, even though really nothing has changed. The PM is still calling for the Sunday referendum hoping that the Greek people will vote the EU down and that will force the creditors into mild concessions that he would accept. And Germany is still rebuffing all further dialogue until after Sunday in the hopes that the leftist government will get the boot. Who's going to blink? Whoever it is, the other EU countries seem to be more pro-Greek than anti as they too have been resentful of the austerity programs Germany has forced upon them. Greece has sort of become a modern anti-hero in the annals of EU high finance. Meanwhile, U.S. payrolls came in 7,000 fewer than expected, which isn't much but still called a drag responsible for today's dip. Instead of taking this as bad news, investors should be lauding the extra 223,000 jobs and asking on what basis forecasters thought it should have been more. Well, that's the way Wall Street works. Regardless it doesn't mean much since everyone's blown town for the holiday weekend. Volume was very light at 5.5 billion.
Wednesday, July 1, 2015
Wall St. ends higher but energy stocks fall and Greece hopes waver
As of 5 p.m. Detroit time Greece is now one full day in arrears, also known as default. Earlier today, it looked very much like the crisis was ending when the Greek PM sent word to the EU that his government was now willing to accept their conditions. Germany, which just yesterday said they were still open for negotiations, upon receiving this news quickly rejected the offer and declared there would be no further talks until after Sunday's referendum. In reaction to that, the Greek PM instantly reversed course on his previous stance to recommend a "Yes" vote to accepting the EU on Sunday to a defiant "No" vote as it is clear now, at least to their government, that Germany is hoping the leftist party will lose on Sunday and be voted out. It is equally clear that the other EU partners want Greece to stay and, regardless of Sunday's outcome, a Monday meeting has been scheduled to try to make that happen at long last. Both sides are playing chicken and it is my feeling that both will end up paying a price considerably beyond what would have happened if they had just been negotiating in good faith last week. In any event, Wall Street doesn't seem too worried about it as the Dow rocketed up 138 points today, not only on new optimism about Europe but also on a slew of positive U.S. reports including the biggest jobs gains since December and the biggest construction spending in over six years. Volume was about average at 6.4 billion.
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